3/10 What would we expect to see if lockdowns caused large numbers of deaths? Well, lots of COVID+lockdown would = many deaths, and no COVID+lockdown would ALSO = many deaths
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4/10 If COVID was relatively safe, and lockdowns harmful in the short term, we'd also expect to see that lots of COVID and NO lockdown would be associated with FEW deaths
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5/10 The first situation (COVID+lockdown) is obviously associated with many deaths. Tons of examples across the world to look at using this excellent paper on excess mortality https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250604v1.full …pic.twitter.com/Fur9qsGvad
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6/10 However, when we look at NO lockdown, and lots of COVID, we see a similar issue. Lots of excess mortality that is probably down to the virus itselfpic.twitter.com/UjvnpXyzAS
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7/10 As for places WITH lockdowns and little/no COVID? Well, the numbers look very different. Few excess deaths if any at allpic.twitter.com/Pin1qsXpOY
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8/10 These numbers are pretty similar across different investigations of excess mortality - in fact, it appears that lockdowns where there's NO COVID are associated with ~fewer~ deaths that expectedpic.twitter.com/Bu3lKkTHw7
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9/10 This doesn't mean that lockdowns work, or that they're perfect, or any such nonsense It doesn't even mean that they definitely don't kill people (remember, short-term)
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10/10 It DOES mean that the best current evidence suggests that lockdowns in and of themselves are not associated with detectable increases in mortality They may even REDUCE deaths overall
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11/10 Small addendum - lockdowns could still be bad if they saved lives, the point here is that we are completely lacking the evidence that we'd expect to find if lockdowns caused many deaths as some claim
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Replying to @GidMK
This isn’t terribly intellectually honest. Nobody has suggested the lockdown deaths come immediately. They come over years and even decades.
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Nonsense. The tweet above did, and I get people in my mentions saying it all the time. Academics have been doing it as well
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Replying to @GidMK
Oh. Apologies. I had not seen that. The immediate lockdown deaths are very low (although utterly tragic). Additional suicides, for example, are appalling but always very small numbers per year.
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