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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 14

      Health Nerd Retweeted

      People ask this question a lot, and I think it's actually worth an answer, so my thoughts: Have lockdowns caused large numbers of excess deaths? 1/10 https://twitter.com/kknnaabb/status/1370949787084746752 …

      Health Nerd added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      18 replies 119 retweets 260 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 14

      2/10 The MAJOR caveat here is that we are only looking at short-term impact. Long-term impact is going to take a while to assesspic.twitter.com/dwBhPGJOs1

      1 reply 1 retweet 55 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 14

      3/10 What would we expect to see if lockdowns caused large numbers of deaths? Well, lots of COVID+lockdown would = many deaths, and no COVID+lockdown would ALSO = many deaths

      1 reply 2 retweets 50 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 14

      4/10 If COVID was relatively safe, and lockdowns harmful in the short term, we'd also expect to see that lots of COVID and NO lockdown would be associated with FEW deaths

      3:27 AM - 14 Mar 2021
      • 1 Retweet
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      • Bernhard Unsöld Yannick 😷💉 #ThereIsNoPlanetB anne kjersti befring Noam Leviatan נעם לויתן donnte Monica Thallinger MD PhD 😡 Chris Thalmeier #plättenstattflatten SmellyOldtaku Angie's thinkin
      1 reply 1 retweet 50 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 14

          5/10 The first situation (COVID+lockdown) is obviously associated with many deaths. Tons of examples across the world to look at using this excellent paper on excess mortality https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250604v1.full …pic.twitter.com/Fur9qsGvad

          2 replies 2 retweets 55 likes
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        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 14

          6/10 However, when we look at NO lockdown, and lots of COVID, we see a similar issue. Lots of excess mortality that is probably down to the virus itselfpic.twitter.com/UjvnpXyzAS

          3 replies 5 retweets 53 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 14

          7/10 As for places WITH lockdowns and little/no COVID? Well, the numbers look very different. Few excess deaths if any at allpic.twitter.com/Pin1qsXpOY

          6 replies 16 retweets 109 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 14

          8/10 These numbers are pretty similar across different investigations of excess mortality - in fact, it appears that lockdowns where there's NO COVID are associated with ~fewer~ deaths that expectedpic.twitter.com/Bu3lKkTHw7

          1 reply 11 retweets 93 likes
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        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 14

          9/10 This doesn't mean that lockdowns work, or that they're perfect, or any such nonsense It doesn't even mean that they definitely don't kill people (remember, short-term)

          1 reply 1 retweet 68 likes
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        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 14

          10/10 It DOES mean that the best current evidence suggests that lockdowns in and of themselves are not associated with detectable increases in mortality They may even REDUCE deaths overall

          7 replies 14 retweets 154 likes
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        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 14

          11/10 Small addendum - lockdowns could still be bad if they saved lives, the point here is that we are completely lacking the evidence that we'd expect to find if lockdowns caused many deaths as some claim

          10 replies 4 retweets 97 likes
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        9. End of conversation

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