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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu Mar 10

      Youyang Gu Retweeted A Marm Kilpatrick

      Here's a very interesting thread where several academic Twitter heavyweights debate the Facebook censorship of a @WSJ op-ed by Johns Hopkins public health professor @MartyMakary. A 🧵 on my thoughts on censorship (tldr; it's a slippery slope).https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1368437342348832769 …

      Youyang Gu added,

      A Marm Kilpatrick @DiseaseEcology
      This is a strange take by @VPrasadMDMPH. The WSJ article claiming we'd have herd immunity by April was NOT "a free exchange of ideas". It was a BS propaganda piece masquerading as an idea, based on factually false claims. Glad to have contributed to this w/ @aetiology @BillHanage https://twitter.com/VPrasadMDMPH/status/1368271129639481346 …
      Show this thread
      9 replies 75 retweets 266 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu Mar 10

      Youyang Gu Retweeted Youyang Gu

      First of all, no one is disagreeing that Dr. Makary's piece has very questionable assumptions and claims. Experts widely denounced it when it came out. I've also expressed my disapproval: https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1362558396113772544 … Here's the article in question: https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731 …

      Youyang Gu added,

      Youyang Gu @youyanggu
      Replying to @Sling35419208 @CDCgov
      That's one of the worst OpEds I've seen. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1362513761383321602 …
      1 reply 2 retweets 25 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu Mar 10

      I don't think any of the experts are acting in bad faith or actively advocating for censorship of the article. But at the same time, their reluctance to acknowledge the issues/opaqueness with Facebook's fact-checking system (which leads to censorship) is concerning.

      2 replies 4 retweets 51 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu Mar 10

      Youyang Gu Retweeted Youyang Gu

      CDC's own published paper estimated that there were 100M infections by December 1. Using that estimate & their 7x multiplier for cases, there'd be 200M infections by now, making a "herd immunity by April" claim not "BS propaganda" but backed by the CDC!https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1344002411556339712 …

      Youyang Gu added,

      Youyang Gu @youyanggu
      A lot of people have asked why the CDC estimates close to 100M total US COVID-19 infections (28%) by Dec 1, while http://covid19-projections.com  only estimates 58M (17%). I believe there are major flaws in the CDC estimates, which I will explain in this thread. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html … pic.twitter.com/fbDJ09kIM6
      Show this thread
      4 replies 5 retweets 67 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu Mar 10

      I was one of the few people who criticized the paper when it came out. No prominent expert called for its retraction despite the major flaws I highlighted in the above thread. Yet when @MartyMakary uses the same estimates to support his opinion, suddenly it's "misinformation".

      2 replies 3 retweets 86 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 10
      Replying to @youyanggu @MartyMakary

      Dunno if I'm prominent but I've been saying since July that the CDC is almost certainly overestimating infection rates because of their overreliance on biased serosurveys

      12:08 PM - 10 Mar 2021
      • 3 Likes
      • Youyang Gu Balgor Dan Cyr
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Balgor‏ @Balgor11 Mar 10
          Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu @MartyMakary

          I don’t think any prominent experts took those CDC estimates very seriously. We actually discussed them briefly at work over the summer and determined they were biased. Working backwards from any reasonable IFR would give prevalence estimates much lower.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu Mar 10
          Replying to @Balgor11 @GidMK @MartyMakary

          Yeah I guess the point is that experts didn’t take the paper seriously, but the moment @MartyMakary used similar estimates they took it seriously and labeled it “misinformation”. Also, what’s the point of peer review at this point?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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