Recently this paper was published purporting to show that staying at home does not prevent COVID-19 deaths I don't think the evidence provided supports that at all! Some peer-review on twitter 1/nhttps://twitter.com/jhnhellstrom/status/1368585541462208519 …
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Replying to @GidMK
The biggest problem with this study is that it ignores time. When one evaluates the data over time one sees a clear pattern: a rise in infection rates drives people to stay at home which then drives a reduction in infection rates.
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Replying to @Hopozitzia @GidMK
Hmm, as far as I understand, they actually try to incorporate time by doing a regression over two time series (mobility, mortality). That's the new method they propose. I think that
@GidMK slightly mischaracterizes the author's method by not mentioning this.2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @RaphaelWimmer @GidMK
Their regression compares mobility and the *absolute* morbidity rate *at the same time*, which is irrelevant data. If you want to disprove the hypothesis that that staying at home reduces infection, you need to check...
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mobility against the *change* in the morbidity rate *after a period of time (~3 weeks)*. On general, to test a hypothesis you first need to understand it. The writers of this paper clearly did not.
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Replying to @Hopozitzia @RaphaelWimmer
Another issue that they did not consider is that there is heterogeneity in the period of time. Some countries report deaths quickly, some take weeks or months
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Replying to @GidMK @Hopozitzia
This should be a minor issue, right? For the time period under investigation, nearly all deaths should have been accounted for. Even if a country is slow to report deaths, I think that
@ourworldindata updates death #'s for past dates, so all deaths get attributed eventually.1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
Yes but if you're regressing against mobility vs deaths at a point in time, but there's heterogeneity in the relationship depending on country...
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