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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

      Health Nerd Retweeted Johan Hellström  🇸🇪

      Recently this paper was published purporting to show that staying at home does not prevent COVID-19 deaths I don't think the evidence provided supports that at all! Some peer-review on twitter 1/nhttps://twitter.com/jhnhellstrom/status/1368585541462208519 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Johan Hellström  🇸🇪 @jhnhellstrom
      - Fresh publication in Nature - "- In conclusion, using current data, ~ 98% of the comparisons using 87 different regions of the world we found no evidence that the number of deaths/million is reduced by staying at home." https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-84092-1 …
      Show this thread
      20 replies 137 retweets 343 likes
      Show this thread
    2.  🗿לא הבנתי‏ @Hopozitzia Mar 8
      Replying to @GidMK

      The biggest problem with this study is that it ignores time. When one evaluates the data over time one sees a clear pattern: a rise in infection rates drives people to stay at home which then drives a reduction in infection rates.

      1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
    3. Raphael‏ Wimmer‏ @RaphaelWimmer Mar 10
      Replying to @Hopozitzia @GidMK

      Hmm, as far as I understand, they actually try to incorporate time by doing a regression over two time series (mobility, mortality). That's the new method they propose. I think that @GidMK slightly mischaracterizes the author's method by not mentioning this.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    4.  🗿לא הבנתי‏ @Hopozitzia Mar 10
      Replying to @RaphaelWimmer @GidMK

      Their regression compares mobility and the *absolute* morbidity rate *at the same time*, which is irrelevant data. If you want to disprove the hypothesis that that staying at home reduces infection, you need to check...

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
    5.  🗿לא הבנתי‏ @Hopozitzia Mar 10
      Replying to @Hopozitzia @RaphaelWimmer @GidMK

      mobility against the *change* in the morbidity rate *after a period of time (~3 weeks)*. On general, to test a hypothesis you first need to understand it. The writers of this paper clearly did not.

      3 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 10
      Replying to @Hopozitzia @RaphaelWimmer

      Another issue that they did not consider is that there is heterogeneity in the period of time. Some countries report deaths quickly, some take weeks or months

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    7. Raphael‏ Wimmer‏ @RaphaelWimmer Mar 10
      Replying to @GidMK @Hopozitzia

      This should be a minor issue, right? For the time period under investigation, nearly all deaths should have been accounted for. Even if a country is slow to report deaths, I think that @ourworldindata updates death #'s for past dates, so all deaths get attributed eventually.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 10
      Replying to @RaphaelWimmer @Hopozitzia @OurWorldInData

      Yes but if you're regressing against mobility vs deaths at a point in time, but there's heterogeneity in the relationship depending on country...

      1:30 AM - 10 Mar 2021
      • 2 Likes
      • 🗿לא הבנתי Raphael‏ Wimmer
      0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes

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