16/n On top of that, this study suffers from the same drawbacks that most ecological trials do. To their credit, the authors acknowledge this in the discussion, but it certainly hasn't filtered through to the publicpic.twitter.com/XMeDYJanin
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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16/n On top of that, this study suffers from the same drawbacks that most ecological trials do. To their credit, the authors acknowledge this in the discussion, but it certainly hasn't filtered through to the publicpic.twitter.com/XMeDYJanin
17/n Limitations inherent in this sort of research are many and varied, but as one example it's hard to make any realistic inferences about individuals staying at home when your unit of study is Spain vs the United States of America
18/n Even within Australia, which was included, the massive Victorian outbreak/lockdown skew the figures enormously, because one state with 1/4 of the population locked down while the rest of the country opened up
19/n We might actually expect null findings from an ecological trial of this sort, because at the country level heterogeneity in local policy irons out a lot of the impact
20/n It's also worth noting that the study literally does not address the question of whether government orders influenced COVID-19 deaths. Even if you ignore all the other issues, "residential" mobility data simply can't answer that question!
21/n There are many reasons that people stay at home, and given the opacity of "residential" data it's hard to say much about the results other than that this is a hard question that we may never answer well
22/n That being said, the idea that this study disproves staying at home as a driver of COVID-19 mortality is obviously wrong - at best, it is an example of how difficult answering that question can be
This is always funny to read. No matter what any side says, the other side just can’t accept it. I believe that it’s obvious in this 2nd wave that heterogeneity is a bigger factor than NPI’s once over about 1% get infected. However, before that early NPI’s have merit.
I don't understand what you mean. I'm simply commenting on this study, which is inadequate. Not sure what "side" I belong to
In general, the majority that I’ve read from you is that NPI’s are the main driving force in causing a change in R0. No? This paper states differently, so your critique appears consistent with some of your previous messaging. However, I completely agree that this is complex.
Not really, my position is that disentangling the impact of NPIs and fear of the pandemic is extremely hard and that much of the research is inconclusive. I don't really have a firm position
Fair enough. I’ve just never seen you tweet anything about the “possibility” of NPI’s doing greater harm than good. But perhaps I missed it. We still have a long ways to go before the data filters out. To me, this pandemic still parallels pandemics of 57 and 68 in so many ways.
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