It appears cellulitis not an entirely uncommon reaction to AZ. 104 cases between 4 Jan and 25 February in the UK. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/966183/COVID-19_AstraZeneca_Vaccine_Analysis_Print.pdf …. Very open to commentary from health practitioners.
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Replying to @chrisrudge
It would be interesting to get their perspective on this.
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Replying to @MWhitbourn @chrisrudge
Some rules on interpreting epidemiological data: 1) can’t draw conclusions based on raw numbers alone etc; 2) establishing causal link between one event & one outcome is difficult; 3) confounders abound, so need to factor into analysis. Further thoughts
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So, always gotta think first of the denominator. These are vaccine reactions reported to the UK system post-vaccine. with 104 cases of cellulitis in roughly 10 million doses means an incidence of ~0.001%
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Thanks. Obviously extremely low. What about relative risk as compared to other reactions? And is there a particular risk/incidence rating/threshold that would warrant attention?
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The Yellow Card system (and similar monitoring systems) aren't really set up to describe the frequency of reactions, they are there to identify potential signals so that they can be properly investigated. I don't think you can say much about the relative reporting frequency tbh
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Cheers. So I understand that, from an epi perspective, the higher number of reports of cellulitis compared to many other infections is not evidentially significant or relevant. Obviously it will help when we get the RTMP up and running here.
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Pretty much. From a surface level look, the most common reported infections - cellulitis, influenza, URTIs, herpes, shingles - are just the most common infections in adults anyway. It doesn't speak at all to whether the vaccine has anything to do with them
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