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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Chris Rudge‏ @chrisrudge Mar 9

      It appears cellulitis not an entirely uncommon reaction to AZ. 104 cases between 4 Jan and 25 February in the UK. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/966183/COVID-19_AstraZeneca_Vaccine_Analysis_Print.pdf …. Very open to commentary from health practitioners.

      3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      Show this thread
    2. Michaela Whitbourn‏Verified account @MWhitbourn Mar 9
      Replying to @chrisrudge

      It would be interesting to get their perspective on this.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Dr Elly Howse‏ @ellyhowse Mar 9
      Replying to @MWhitbourn @chrisrudge

      Some rules on interpreting epidemiological data: 1) can’t draw conclusions based on raw numbers alone etc; 2) establishing causal link between one event & one outcome is difficult; 3) confounders abound, so need to factor into analysis. Further thoughts @GidMK

      3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 9
      Replying to @ellyhowse @MWhitbourn @chrisrudge

      So, always gotta think first of the denominator. These are vaccine reactions reported to the UK system post-vaccine. with 104 cases of cellulitis in roughly 10 million doses means an incidence of ~0.001%

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 9
      Replying to @GidMK @ellyhowse and

      According to a quick review I did, the yearly incidence of cellulitis appears to be about 2-3% per year in the UK, which is about 0.15-0.3% per month. Now, those two aren't perfectly comparable, but it gives you an idea of what you'd expect to see regardless of vaccinationpic.twitter.com/FUcSxgyJAn

      1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 9
      Replying to @GidMK @ellyhowse and

      But it's even more complex than that. They UK "Yellow Card" system is a voluntary reporting mechanism that definitely won't capture every case of cellulitis following vaccination. So the 104 is almost certainly an underestimate

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 9
      Replying to @GidMK @ellyhowse and

      That being said, from a very surface analysis it appears in the ballpark of what you'd expect if the vaccine was not associated with cellulitis at all. This appears to concord with the trial data, which did not show an increased risk of severe cellulitishttps://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext#supplementaryMaterial …

      4:31 PM - 9 Mar 2021
      • 1 Like
      • Chris Rudge
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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