It appears cellulitis not an entirely uncommon reaction to AZ. 104 cases between 4 Jan and 25 February in the UK. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/966183/COVID-19_AstraZeneca_Vaccine_Analysis_Print.pdf …. Very open to commentary from health practitioners.
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Replying to @chrisrudge
It would be interesting to get their perspective on this.
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Replying to @MWhitbourn @chrisrudge
Some rules on interpreting epidemiological data: 1) can’t draw conclusions based on raw numbers alone etc; 2) establishing causal link between one event & one outcome is difficult; 3) confounders abound, so need to factor into analysis. Further thoughts
@GidMK3 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
So, always gotta think first of the denominator. These are vaccine reactions reported to the UK system post-vaccine. with 104 cases of cellulitis in roughly 10 million doses means an incidence of ~0.001%
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Replying to @GidMK @ellyhowse and
According to a quick review I did, the yearly incidence of cellulitis appears to be about 2-3% per year in the UK, which is about 0.15-0.3% per month. Now, those two aren't perfectly comparable, but it gives you an idea of what you'd expect to see regardless of vaccinationpic.twitter.com/FUcSxgyJAn
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Replying to @GidMK @ellyhowse and
But it's even more complex than that. They UK "Yellow Card" system is a voluntary reporting mechanism that definitely won't capture every case of cellulitis following vaccination. So the 104 is almost certainly an underestimate
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That being said, from a very surface analysis it appears in the ballpark of what you'd expect if the vaccine was not associated with cellulitis at all. This appears to concord with the trial data, which did not show an increased risk of severe cellulitishttps://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext#supplementaryMaterial …
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