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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

      12/n For example, here is the "residential" vs "workplace" mobility data for the state of Victoria in Australia during their mammoth lockdown. "Residential" never goes above a 25% increase, but "workplace" decreases FAR morepic.twitter.com/iUfR2QGHcz

      2 replies 2 retweets 58 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

      13/n What this means is that by comparing "residential" mobility, you are the most likely to find no difference by default. This is called a bias towards the null, and it's not ideal

      1 reply 2 retweets 77 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

      14/n Furthermore, remember my asterisk from above? Yeh, turns out that it's really hard to find out what "residential" actually means, how it's calculated, or what the raw figures are based on, presumably because this is proprietary Google analysis

      1 reply 1 retweet 50 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

      15/n So the conclusions about staying at home make no sense at all. "Residential" mobility data might not have been different between places, but for all we know that's a meaningless measure anyway that has very little to do with how much people stay at homepic.twitter.com/6BZyfOXqj7

      1 reply 2 retweets 60 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

      16/n On top of that, this study suffers from the same drawbacks that most ecological trials do. To their credit, the authors acknowledge this in the discussion, but it certainly hasn't filtered through to the publicpic.twitter.com/XMeDYJanin

      1 reply 1 retweet 54 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

      17/n Limitations inherent in this sort of research are many and varied, but as one example it's hard to make any realistic inferences about individuals staying at home when your unit of study is Spain vs the United States of America

      1 reply 1 retweet 50 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

      18/n Even within Australia, which was included, the massive Victorian outbreak/lockdown skew the figures enormously, because one state with 1/4 of the population locked down while the rest of the country opened up

      1 reply 3 retweets 52 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

      19/n We might actually expect null findings from an ecological trial of this sort, because at the country level heterogeneity in local policy irons out a lot of the impact

      1 reply 2 retweets 54 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

      20/n It's also worth noting that the study literally does not address the question of whether government orders influenced COVID-19 deaths. Even if you ignore all the other issues, "residential" mobility data simply can't answer that question!

      1 reply 4 retweets 53 likes
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    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

      21/n There are many reasons that people stay at home, and given the opacity of "residential" data it's hard to say much about the results other than that this is a hard question that we may never answer well

      3 replies 1 retweet 45 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

      22/n That being said, the idea that this study disproves staying at home as a driver of COVID-19 mortality is obviously wrong - at best, it is an example of how difficult answering that question can be

      4:12 PM - 8 Mar 2021
      • 9 Retweets
      • 94 Likes
      • Nils Simon Ilya Kashnitsky zumi🏳️‍⚧️bumi Salatyel Fellipe Mariana Lucas de Geus #PFFparaTodos krak It's Not All About ME c
      12 replies 9 retweets 94 likes
        1. Mike Dee‏ @MikeDeeeeeee Mar 8
          Replying to @GidMK

          Main issue of endogeneity is also not solved - high number of fatalities result in lockdowns. This means that estimates become highly unreliable and uninterpretable.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        2. Dr Rob Whitehurst‏ @OYCar Mar 8
          Replying to @GidMK

          Epidemic dynamics means reverse causality enters in here. Take the UK vs Australia. High prevalence plus high deaths lead to lockdown and more people staying at home in the UK. In Australia the opposite, so such analysis concludes the nonsense that staying at home is high risk

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
        3. Zach Hensel‏ @alchemytoday Mar 8
          Replying to @OYCar @GidMK

          Staying at home before it's too late helps, too... though it would've been better to do less-than-stay-at-home earlier.pic.twitter.com/PDdOGU6TLW

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Ben‏ @benjimaan22 Mar 8
          Replying to @GidMK

          We’ve been staying at home for like a year now & have the highest death toll in Europe or one of. Think about that.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. aeon‏ @AeonCoin Mar 8
          Replying to @GidMK

          "Residential" would include going to a party at another home, right?

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8
          Replying to @AeonCoin

          🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. Trent Condellone‏ @TrentCondellone Mar 8
          Replying to @GidMK

          My house is now zoned commercial... Sooooo... And also my Google location data shows me visiting large commercial store 3 blocks over frequently. I haven't been there or even drove by in over 7 months.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Neil‏ @AnserGIS Mar 8
          Replying to @GidMK

          Yeah.. well.. they supported the conclusion with reference 46.. say no more! I'm really surprised this made it into @Nature.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. PaedsHaemDoc‏ @dr_barrett Mar 9
          Replying to @GidMK

          PaedsHaemDoc Retweeted PaedsHaemDoc

          More Twitter reviews of same paper ... please read our basically live thread discussion - including examination of their code assumptionshttps://twitter.com/dr_barrett/status/1368888842250518532 …

          PaedsHaemDoc added,

          PaedsHaemDoc @dr_barrett
          Quant @sinichol who has done great work on mobility data. ; has looked at the paper ... it has been found wanting. #wrongagainivor ...👇🏻 https://twitter.com/sinichol/status/1368864974400073729 …
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        2. Nick Douvis‏ @MedHatDentist Mar 9
          Replying to @GidMK

          This is always funny to read. No matter what any side says, the other side just can’t accept it. I believe that it’s obvious in this 2nd wave that heterogeneity is a bigger factor than NPI’s once over about 1% get infected. However, before that early NPI’s have merit.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 9
          Replying to @MedHatDentist

          I don't understand what you mean. I'm simply commenting on this study, which is inadequate. Not sure what "side" I belong to

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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