Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

Tweets

Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

Tweets

  • © 2021 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

      7/n Firstly, this is a selected dataset. Only people who use Google services (mostly Android users) AND HAVE LOCATION HISTORY TURNED ON are represented in this dataset Almost certainly not representative of the people who are mostly dying from COVID-19pic.twitter.com/ugcL4oPOvV

      1 reply 9 retweets 102 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

      8/n This is mentioned in a sentence in the discussion, but I think it's a fundamental issue that makes this analysis a bit useless. We know that 50%+ of COVID-19 deaths are in the over-65 population, who are the least likely to be represented in this dataset!

      1 reply 5 retweets 86 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

      9/n Furthermore, only using the "residential" data*, as the authors did, is a big problem You see, most people already spend most of their time at home *there's also an issue with how opaque the term "residential" is and how this is calculated, but one issue at a timepic.twitter.com/AOwzpHozXC

      2 replies 2 retweets 63 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

      10/n Google even points this out in the explainer for mobility data. Most people already spend 12+ of their 24 hours a day at home, so the "residential" category is the LEAST LIKELY to show any increase/decreasespic.twitter.com/nTEo19B0gP

      1 reply 3 retweets 65 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

      11/n It makes sense when you remember that Google mobility data tracks CHANGES, not absolute figures. So 50% of the population working from home 100% would reduce office mobility by 50%, but only increase residential by a fraction of that amount

      1 reply 1 retweet 49 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

      12/n For example, here is the "residential" vs "workplace" mobility data for the state of Victoria in Australia during their mammoth lockdown. "Residential" never goes above a 25% increase, but "workplace" decreases FAR morepic.twitter.com/iUfR2QGHcz

      2 replies 2 retweets 58 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

      13/n What this means is that by comparing "residential" mobility, you are the most likely to find no difference by default. This is called a bias towards the null, and it's not ideal

      1 reply 2 retweets 77 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

      14/n Furthermore, remember my asterisk from above? Yeh, turns out that it's really hard to find out what "residential" actually means, how it's calculated, or what the raw figures are based on, presumably because this is proprietary Google analysis

      1 reply 1 retweet 50 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

      15/n So the conclusions about staying at home make no sense at all. "Residential" mobility data might not have been different between places, but for all we know that's a meaningless measure anyway that has very little to do with how much people stay at homepic.twitter.com/6BZyfOXqj7

      1 reply 2 retweets 60 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

      16/n On top of that, this study suffers from the same drawbacks that most ecological trials do. To their credit, the authors acknowledge this in the discussion, but it certainly hasn't filtered through to the publicpic.twitter.com/XMeDYJanin

      1 reply 1 retweet 54 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

      17/n Limitations inherent in this sort of research are many and varied, but as one example it's hard to make any realistic inferences about individuals staying at home when your unit of study is Spain vs the United States of America

      4:12 PM - 8 Mar 2021
      • 1 Retweet
      • 50 Likes
      • Nils Simon Daniel G 💉💉👻 Ilya Kashnitsky zumi🏳️‍⚧️bumi Salatyel Fellipe Mariana Thalita Scandolara Liz "The Mask Goes Over Your Nose AND Mouth" Ditz
      1 reply 1 retweet 50 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

          18/n Even within Australia, which was included, the massive Victorian outbreak/lockdown skew the figures enormously, because one state with 1/4 of the population locked down while the rest of the country opened up

          1 reply 3 retweets 52 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

          19/n We might actually expect null findings from an ecological trial of this sort, because at the country level heterogeneity in local policy irons out a lot of the impact

          1 reply 2 retweets 54 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

          20/n It's also worth noting that the study literally does not address the question of whether government orders influenced COVID-19 deaths. Even if you ignore all the other issues, "residential" mobility data simply can't answer that question!

          1 reply 4 retweets 53 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

          21/n There are many reasons that people stay at home, and given the opacity of "residential" data it's hard to say much about the results other than that this is a hard question that we may never answer well

          3 replies 1 retweet 45 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 8

          22/n That being said, the idea that this study disproves staying at home as a driver of COVID-19 mortality is obviously wrong - at best, it is an example of how difficult answering that question can be

          12 replies 9 retweets 94 likes
          Show this thread
        7. End of conversation

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2021 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info