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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 3
      Replying to @JacobGudiol

      Nah that doesn't really make sense. It's clearly a pertinent point that is quite obviously important to the argument, spending a sentence or 2 (or even just using the supplementary materials) to explain would've been trivial

      1 reply 0 retweets 21 likes
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 3
      Replying to @GidMK @JacobGudiol

      Also, part of the issue for me is that what is described in the email seems to be p-hacking. If you redo your analysis until you get the result you want, but don't publish this, it's not great

      2 replies 0 retweets 18 likes
    3. Jacob Gudiol‏Verified account @JacobGudiol Mar 3
      Replying to @GidMK

      You can complain about the methodology. But the article you shared and the partial mail that you shared painted the picture of Ludwigsson finding the anomaly and then deciding to bury it Instead the mail shows that he started to investigate it to find a cause

      2 replies 1 retweet 19 likes
    4. Jacob Gudiol‏Verified account @JacobGudiol Mar 3
      Replying to @JacobGudiol @GidMK

      Why would you even send the mail if your intent was to not care about it? It makes no sense to me. And the fact that Science Magazine changed their article after publishing it without telling anyone indicates to me that they know they did send out the wrong message to

      2 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 3
      Replying to @JacobGudiol

      And yet, no mention of this analysis made it into the paper until (from my understanding) an FOI request? I can think of a single sentence to add to the paper to explain this finding, but they didn't do it

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    6. Jacob Gudiol‏Verified account @JacobGudiol Mar 3
      Replying to @GidMK

      Here is the deaths per year in the relevant age groups in Sweden between 2010-2020. Can be explored here https://www.statistikdatabasen.scb.se/pxweb/sv/ssd/START__BE__BE0101__BE0101I/DodaHandelseK/ … I don't see how presenting numbers and the explaining that it is likely noice helps anyone?pic.twitter.com/5morhzWvNQ

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Jacob Gudiol‏Verified account @JacobGudiol Mar 3
      Replying to @JacobGudiol @GidMK

      Data presenting cause of deaths in different age groups according to deaths certificates for the first 6 months was also published by SCB in November There were no deaths <20 years where covid-19 was the suspected cause

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 3
      Replying to @JacobGudiol

      I'm confused here, because clearly the researchers knew it was an issue otherwise why investigate?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 3
      Replying to @GidMK @JacobGudiol

      Let me put it this way - this was clearly something that the authors knew about, investigated, and considered to be an issue that potentially derailed the narrative. And yet, not addressed at all in the paper, except lumped in with other numbers. That is a bad look

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 3
      Replying to @GidMK @JacobGudiol

      It is potentially entirely a fluke. It is also possible that excess mortality in this age group was influenced by limited hospital capacity, or that under-reporting of COVID in children was a problem. There is some uncertainty there

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 3
      Replying to @GidMK @JacobGudiol

      It's also worrying that what the email itself describes is still basically p-hacking - only reporting the analyses that agree with your argument is literally the definition of p-hacking

      1:11 PM - 3 Mar 2021
      • 2 Likes
      • Tutkija Tutkersson Lonni Besançon 🇫🇷 🇸🇪
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Jacob Gudiol‏Verified account @JacobGudiol Mar 3
          Replying to @GidMK

          Both the analysis agrees with the argument. We know that now. There is no real excess death among school kids in Sweden It is just that the other analysis required a lot more explaining in order for it not to be used in a misleading way, as it is now by science magazine etc

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Jacob Gudiol‏Verified account @JacobGudiol Mar 3
          Replying to @JacobGudiol @GidMK

          Say you did some sort of a subanalysis of your IFR data and first found something that looked weird, not fitting with your general conclusion.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies

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