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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. COVID Impact‏ @CovidSerology Mar 2

      As asked by @DiseaseEcology , whats happening elsewhere with P1? Looking at Iquitos (https://twitter.com/CovidSerology/status/1352019998630309889 …) and Leticia (https://twitter.com/CovidSerology/status/1356660047523110912 …). Both areas are seeing increased second waves despite very high attack rates from random serosurveys (Iquitos - 70%; Leticia - 59%) https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1366851494452977664 …pic.twitter.com/bbl2ZnXsWz

      Dr Rob Whitehurst
      2 replies 12 retweets 18 likes
      Show this thread
    2. This Tweet is unavailable.
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 2
      Replying to @FT__Dan @CovidSerology and

      I think it's very likely that the initial serosurvey was biased upwards and overestimated the AR. I also would not be surprised if the IFR was higher than expected, because most estimates are primarily based on studies conducted in better-serviced places in terms of healthcare

      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
    4. COVID Impact‏ @CovidSerology Mar 2
      Replying to @GidMK @FT__Dan and

      COVID Impact Retweeted COVID Impact

      I agree that IFRs in the Manaus setting is likely different from age-adjusted estimates based on data from elsewhere (https://twitter.com/CovidSerology/status/1350430989684596737 …) and modeled AR estimates for Manaus are likely overestimates but taken together this raises even more questions than it answers.

      COVID Impact added,

      COVID Impact @CovidSerology
      A new retrospective analysis of the first 250,000 hospitalized individuals with SARS-COV-2 infection (>20 years) across Brazil may provide some possible explanation for the surge in Manaus. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30560-9/fulltext … pic.twitter.com/4monkuJjq3
      Show this thread
      1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
    5. COVID Impact‏ @CovidSerology Mar 2
      Replying to @CovidSerology @GidMK and

      What was seroprevalence after wave 1? Even assuming 25% AR (https://twitter.com/CovidSerology/status/1349639188736425986 …) would mean this figure has at least doubled since the end of the 1st wave with an IFR (~0.7%) comparable to much older populations. https://twitter.com/OYCar/status/1349557538836996100 …pic.twitter.com/dXy4GlguQV

      2 replies 2 retweets 4 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Mar 2
      Replying to @CovidSerology @FT__Dan and

      Without exact age figures the overall IFR isn't that useful. If they've had a high proportion of cases in the elderly then it would be easily explained

      10:51 PM - 2 Mar 2021
      • 1 Like
      • noa-witheringly
      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Dr Rob Whitehurst‏ @OYCar Mar 2
          Replying to @GidMK @CovidSerology and

          That can happen with outbreaks in aged care facilities. But a city sized epidemic concentrated predominantly in the elderly twice from a disease known to spread most readily through SSEs at venues like bars and restaurants in twentysomethings seems a most improbable explanation.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Dr Rob Whitehurst‏ @OYCar Mar 2
          Replying to @OYCar @GidMK and

          Personally I think reinfections are almost certainly a factor. The unresolved issue is whether or not reinfections are typically mild. But if they are then the second wave must have a higher IFR for one or another reason.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. COVID Impact‏ @CovidSerology Mar 2
          Replying to @GidMK @FT__Dan and

          Hospitalization and mortality data. ~53% of hospitalizations have been in those less than 60. ~32% of fatalities have been in those aged <60. Just to compare: about half of all hospitalizations in the US have been in under 65s http://www.fvs.am.gov.br/indicadorSalaSituacao_view/67/2 …pic.twitter.com/VozmVeXLFA

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. COVID Impact‏ @CovidSerology Mar 2
          Replying to @CovidSerology @GidMK and

          I don't see strong evidence for imbalanced spread in the elderly population

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        4. End of conversation

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