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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 28

      Really interesting preprint from @mlipsitch and @rebeccajk13. Key take-homes: - Can model the likely effectiveness of vaccines to prevent transmissibility - Using this method, Moderna is at least 61% effectivehttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.25.21252415v1 …

      1 reply 11 retweets 32 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 28

      There are a number of assumptions inherent in this approach, and it only works if you have sufficient data in the vaccine trial (not all trials do), but it's still a really fascinating approach and a pretty solid conclusion

      1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 28

      Nevertheless, using their model, they estimate that Moderna is ~at least~ 61% protective against transmission of COVID-19 from people who are vaccinated, which is good news

      1 reply 3 retweets 18 likes
      Show this thread
    4. A Marm Kilpatrick‏ @DiseaseEcology Feb 28
      Replying to @GidMK

      The 61% is if you ignore the symptomatic efficacy data (95%). If you add the two the paper indicates it's 89.5% (85-93%). It's in the next paragraph.pic.twitter.com/876nMz6nBt

      1 reply 4 retweets 6 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 28
      Replying to @DiseaseEcology

      Ahhh that makes sense. So best estimate 89.5% reduction in total transmission based on this model and about the same from yours right? And those would both be for 2 doses

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. A Marm Kilpatrick‏ @DiseaseEcology Feb 28
      Replying to @GidMK

      The 61% is 1st dose. The 94.1% is 2 doses. It's messy.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 28
      Replying to @DiseaseEcology

      Makes sense, why should anything be easy! Also, from my understanding we probably can't do this for the Astra vaccine because of limited info?

      8:14 PM - 28 Feb 2021
      • 3 Likes
      • noa-witheringly George Hagstrom Francesco Dellagrazia
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. Lifes A Party‏ @Gleddersdotcom Feb 28
          Replying to @GidMK @DiseaseEcology

          EAVE II is the ongoing research program in Scotland. There are several links at the bottom of this press release to the study data. You might know of this study, but if not, might be of interest. https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/news/2021/february/vaccine-linked-to-reduction-in-risk-of-covid-19-admissions-to-hospitals/ …

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