Really interesting preprint from @mlipsitch and @rebeccajk13. Key take-homes:
- Can model the likely effectiveness of vaccines to prevent transmissibility
- Using this method, Moderna is at least 61% effectivehttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.25.21252415v1 …
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The 61% is if you ignore the symptomatic efficacy data (95%). If you add the two the paper indicates it's 89.5% (85-93%). It's in the next paragraph.pic.twitter.com/876nMz6nBt
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Ahhh that makes sense. So best estimate 89.5% reduction in total transmission based on this model and about the same from yours right? And those would both be for 2 doses
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