https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731 … I give this article a score of 9 Patinkins (maximum possible score = 10 Patinkins)pic.twitter.com/O8mxZ1kZbb
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If you infer back using our age-adjusted IFRs and US deaths, you get a rate of about 25% infections. If you use excess mortality, more like 30% by now. I think a reasonable inference puts the total number immune (inc vaccinated) at maybe 30-35% maximum
Yes. I think attack rates are likely far higher in younger than older. Heterogeneity is an issue too [waves hands around]. But again, look forward to future discussion in a non-twitter forum.
I’m not sure. Look forward to discussing over a beer one day.
Here is something buried in one of our @IHME_UW reports of relevance to this discussion http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates pic.twitter.com/ZaEyDR7tLL
For what it is worth, we have run >400 nucleocapsid antibodies on patients coming in for routine annual physicals in our primary care practice and have a 6.8% seropositivity rate. We’ve seen 60 cases in our cohort of approximately 900 patients. Suspect this is a lower bound.
Oh, that's a problem. Even ignoring any other issues, you cannot infer back using a dichotomized 0-69/70+ age group, it's not nearly granular enough to make such an inference to cases
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