Pretty amazing that, despite the spike in COVID-19 deaths from the Victorian outbreak, there was ~no~ excess mortality during winter because the number of deaths directly attributable to influenza fell from a yearly average of ~900 to 42
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Also interesting - despite lockdowns and restrictions, at worst only very minor increases in deaths due to diabetes, cancer, or CVD, and a modest reduction in deaths due to COPD (probably flu related)pic.twitter.com/QQ6eYitfNW
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Small note of caution - this is provisional data, which the ABS warns may only represent ~95% of the total, so the numbers may change slightly before being finalized
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Anyway, this provides quite strong evidence against the idea that government restrictions are necessarily associated with large numbers of non-COVID deaths, at least in the short term. The long term is of course still an open question
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How long until someone who doesn’t read the details adds this to their Covid19 is a hoax files?
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Exactly my question!
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There was clearly excess mortality in the first wave (Mar/Apr). This was offset by lower mortality later in the year, driven by ALL respiratory disease deaths, not just flu.
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Hopefully this will continue for years to come when we realise how to wash, distance & stay home when sick from now on during flu season.
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In 2020 there were 1,647 fewer deaths registered in NZ than in 2019, a 5% drop. Annual death totals are trending lower, but most of that is attributable to lockdowns and physical distancing.
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They should not compare 2020 with the 2015-19 average, but instead take the trend into account, as
@ArielKarlinsky and I do in our work. We get 3% decrease, not 0.8%. That's because there was in increasing trend in 2015-19, so our baseline is higher. https://github.com/dkobak/excess-mortality/ … -
They don't lol that was just my back of the envelope calculation
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