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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Ariel Karlinsky‏ @ArielKarlinsky Feb 19
      Replying to @GidMK @hippopedoid

      Hi Gideon, #WorldMortality is by @hippopedoid and myself. Since publishing the preprint, the number of countries is up to 79. We have updated the data and analysis several times, both are freely available. Data: https://github.com/akarlinsky/world_mortality … Analysis: https://github.com/dkobak/excess-mortality …pic.twitter.com/sRzR9cvs7I

      10 replies 32 retweets 95 likes
    2. Jon Stanich‏ @JonStanich Feb 23
      Replying to @ArielKarlinsky @zorinaq and

      Is anyone willing to have an honest discussion on these models? There is a ~4,500 difference (73%) in excess deaths between highest/lowest models for Sweden, so there has to be a math problem/error some place. @TedPetrou @feheva @jhnhellstrom @HaroldofWorldpic.twitter.com/MNMimevrr4

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Ariel Karlinsky‏ @ArielKarlinsky Feb 23
      Replying to @JonStanich @zorinaq and

      There's some misunderstanding, mostly due to Sweden's unusual reporting. Sweden has a large number of deaths which occur in "unknown week". Since we do not when it occurs, we do not use it. this makes our "annual baseline" lower. 1pic.twitter.com/Nq1jF59Elz

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Ariel Karlinsky‏ @ArielKarlinsky Feb 23
      Replying to @ArielKarlinsky @JonStanich and

      Also, our excess estimate, currently at ~11k, is up to Jan 31. The baseline is annual, but we measure excess (or deficit) from the date of first reported COVID death up to the latest point of all-cause mortality. If (god forbid) COVID deaths last another year, p-score will rise.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Jon Stanich‏ @JonStanich Feb 23
      Replying to @ArielKarlinsky @zorinaq and

      Thanks, that is a critical assumption. Using deaths up to Jan 31 would certainly skew the data from other models that end Dec 31 2020. People need to understand this prior to advertising your data. It's fine, but reveals different information from a model with 2020 excess only.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Ariel Karlinsky‏ @ArielKarlinsky Feb 23
      Replying to @JonStanich @zorinaq and

      All our plots state precisely that we use all available all-cause mortality up to latest date for each country. You should also read our paper, preprint here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250604v1 …pic.twitter.com/KQGarn9jZm

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Jon Stanich‏ @JonStanich Feb 23
      Replying to @ArielKarlinsky @zorinaq and

      Thanks. The concern is that many are claiming your charts are showing excess deaths in 2020, but that is not accurate. This chart below is attempting to capture excess deaths 2020. Maybe your charts are showing excess deaths during pandemic months minus unknown date deaths?pic.twitter.com/vGQBR4F2x4

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Ariel Karlinsky‏ @ArielKarlinsky Feb 23
      Replying to @JonStanich @zorinaq and

      We count excess from start of COVID spread in each country up to latest data point of all cause mortality in each country. Our estimates will also show excess in 2020 alone, but I don't think deaths in 2020 mean a lot, as we clearly state in the paper.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Jon Stanich‏ @JonStanich Feb 23
      Replying to @ArielKarlinsky @zorinaq and

      I think it depends on what you are trying to infer from the data. Showing deaths in just 2020 could help analyze how many early deaths from COVID, and how many would have sadly died that year either way due to serious health issues.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Jon Stanich‏ @JonStanich Feb 23
      Replying to @JonStanich @ArielKarlinsky and

      Jon Stanich Retweeted Teddy Petrou

      For example, knowing there is currently 9,089 official COVID deaths in 2020, and ~6,000 Excess could help understand how many may have sadly died in 2020 either way due to serious illness/age.https://twitter.com/TedPetrou/status/1362775224803074052?s=20 …

      Jon Stanich added,

      Teddy Petrou @TedPetrou
      I'd like to issue a correction for 2020 expected deaths in Sweden: 92k or ~6k excess I was not aware that there was a downward trend and it was significant and consistent. Thanks very much to @GidMK and @zorinaq for pointing this out. It was a huge mistake to not consider it pic.twitter.com/yX7F2gag2t
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 23
      Replying to @JonStanich @ArielKarlinsky and

      It depends on whether we want to know the impact of the pandemic, or whether we are asking the question purely out of academic interest. If it's the former, starting at the first case of COVID-19 makes more sense, if it's the latter then using the whole of 2020 does

      12:02 PM - 23 Feb 2021
      • 1 Like
      • Ariel Karlinsky
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Jon Stanich‏ @JonStanich Feb 23
          Replying to @GidMK @ArielKarlinsky and

          I think it depends on what you are trying to analyze. Showing excess deaths in just 2020 could help analyze how many early deaths from COVID, and how many would have sadly died that year either way due to serious health issues.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Jon Stanich‏ @JonStanich Feb 23
          Replying to @JonStanich @GidMK and

          You could also use excess deaths in only 2020 to determine if a country is undercounting. Places like Singapore use a very different counting procedure than places like Sweden/US.pic.twitter.com/nxub2eA2Iy

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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