Last question is about the timeframe. CDC says "CDC estimates that from February–December 2020." There were ~350K deaths at the end of Dec. Hence 350K/83M gives ~0.4% IFR. Is that correct?pic.twitter.com/YisHEeDcoT
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If you are interested in a more fulsome analysis of the issue, we address it in the supplementary materials of our paper herehttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10654-020-00698-1 …
I understand clearly. If you assume 400K deaths by Jan 15, and 83.1M infections by Dec 30 (assuming some of these infections lead to deaths by Jan 15) you get 0.48% IFR. That is more accurate than 0.6%, but still an estimate adjusted for lag & infections only up to Dec.pic.twitter.com/4ojnMtO1SU
So that is the absolute lower bound of your estimate, given the lag between infection->death. But as we discuss in the paper, reporting lags often take 2+ weeks, so a death that OCCURS on 15/01 doesn't appear on your graph until 30/1 OR LATER
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