So this data is claiming that Asymptomatic is only ~15% higher than Symptomatic. Does that seem right?
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But given the reporting lag, people who got sick on 31/12 would mostly not appear in the official figures until the start of Feb, and you wouldn't see most of them in the deaths data until about now
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So if we use the data from mid-Jan, we would get an IFR of 0.5% (410k deaths), but the true value lies somewhere between 0.5-0.6% as I said
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If you assume deaths up to Jan 15 you get 400K/83M = 0.48%. That is more accurate, but I would also assume there are more total infections by Jan 15 also. If you assume 15% more infections since cases went up 15%, you get 0.3% IFR.
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