The CDC since revised their estimates down substantially - this initial data collection was quite biased. Mid-Jan, CDC estimated ~25%, to date, which would be consistent with the IFRs above given the lag in death reportinghttps://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html …
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Given that infection->death is a 2-3 week timeline, and death->reported death is another 2-4 week timeline, the actual IFR would be calculated on deaths that happened some time between end Jan and now. So likely somewhere between 0.5-0.6% depending on how you calculate
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Right, since this is total infections from February–December 2020, you would have to normalize to account for Jan/Feb. On Dec 30 there were 20M cases, now 35% higher. So if infections are just 20% higher, this gets closer to 0.4% IFR.pic.twitter.com/7oFGvU7Zvu
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