The United States recently reached 500,000 COVID-19 deaths That means the POPULATION fatality rate (i.e. deaths/population) for the US is 0.15% With an estimated ~25% infection rate, the INFECTION fatality rate is ~.6%
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Replying to @GidMK
Where did you get ~25% infection rate? Studies showed back in July there could easily be 5X more infections than tested cases. This would mean ~144M have been infected which gives ~3% IFR. Do you have a source for 25%?pic.twitter.com/jDCKLMDpmX
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Replying to @JonStanich
The CDC since revised their estimates down substantially - this initial data collection was quite biased. Mid-Jan, CDC estimated ~25%, to date, which would be consistent with the IFRs above given the lag in death reportinghttps://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html …
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Replying to @GidMK @JonStanich
Actually, I should also clarify that the earlier JAMA study was not an official CDC estimate (although it was conducted by CDC personnel), while these figures are
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Replying to @GidMK
I think you made the same mistake that has been made many times. This table only include "Symptomatic Illness" so all Asymptomatic cases are Not included. If you add Symptomatic + Asymptomatic total infections is much higher.pic.twitter.com/LYTqd2gHvQ
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Replying to @JonStanich
I did not. 83 million is ~25% of 330 million infected as of Jan 19th
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Replying to @GidMK @JonStanich
This may well still be too high, as it is inferred from several biased sources, but it is probably not wildly off overall
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Replying to @GidMK
So this data is claiming that Asymptomatic is only ~15% higher than Symptomatic. Does that seem right?
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Replying to @JonStanich @GidMK
Probably, though I've seen up to 40% elsewhere.
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Current best evidence suggests about 17% truly asymptomatic:https://research.bond.edu.au/en/publications/estimating-the-extent-of-asymptomatic-covid-19-and-its-potential- …
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Replying to @GidMK @JonStanich
Then that would line up almost perfectly with these numbers. It is of course pretty likely that there are some asymptomatic cases slipping through, but it won't change the "big picture".
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