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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 22

      The United States recently reached 500,000 COVID-19 deaths That means the POPULATION fatality rate (i.e. deaths/population) for the US is 0.15% With an estimated ~25% infection rate, the INFECTION fatality rate is ~.6%

      15 replies 109 retweets 337 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Jon Stanich‏ @JonStanich Feb 22
      Replying to @GidMK

      Where did you get ~25% infection rate? Studies showed back in July there could easily be 5X more infections than tested cases. This would mean ~144M have been infected which gives ~3% IFR. Do you have a source for 25%?pic.twitter.com/jDCKLMDpmX

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 22
      Replying to @JonStanich

      The CDC since revised their estimates down substantially - this initial data collection was quite biased. Mid-Jan, CDC estimated ~25%, to date, which would be consistent with the IFRs above given the lag in death reportinghttps://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html …

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 22
      Replying to @GidMK @JonStanich

      Actually, I should also clarify that the earlier JAMA study was not an official CDC estimate (although it was conducted by CDC personnel), while these figures are

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. Jon Stanich‏ @JonStanich Feb 22
      Replying to @GidMK

      I think you made the same mistake that has been made many times. This table only include "Symptomatic Illness" so all Asymptomatic cases are Not included. If you add Symptomatic + Asymptomatic total infections is much higher.pic.twitter.com/LYTqd2gHvQ

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 22
      Replying to @JonStanich

      I did not. 83 million is ~25% of 330 million infected as of Jan 19th

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 22
      Replying to @GidMK @JonStanich

      This may well still be too high, as it is inferred from several biased sources, but it is probably not wildly off overall

      7:56 PM - 22 Feb 2021
      • 2 Likes
      • Thatcher Ulrich Freethinker
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Jon Stanich‏ @JonStanich Feb 22
          Replying to @GidMK

          So this data is claiming that Asymptomatic is only ~15% higher than Symptomatic. Does that seem right?

          3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Jon Stanich‏ @JonStanich Feb 22
          Replying to @JonStanich @GidMK

          Actually I meant Total Infections only ~15% higher than Symptomatic. That seems low.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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