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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 22

      The United States recently reached 500,000 COVID-19 deaths That means the POPULATION fatality rate (i.e. deaths/population) for the US is 0.15% With an estimated ~25% infection rate, the INFECTION fatality rate is ~.6%

      15 replies 109 retweets 337 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 22

      Really puts into perspective how wildly off the earlier estimates of very low IFRs in the US were. An IFR of 0.1% is numerically impossible at this point

      6:25 PM - 22 Feb 2021
      • 17 Retweets
      • 151 Likes
      • Brian J. Gadd Fufi Atomsk's Sanakan JP RalfFFM Taylor Lab UM Daniel Brockmann Ernährungs Coaching LadyLovelyLumps L
      8 replies 17 retweets 151 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 22

          Another important piece of perspective is that, in the 12 months from March 2020-March 2021, COVID-19 will likely be the leading cause of death in the US

          3 replies 29 retweets 114 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 22

          Also, these numbers align surprisingly well with @LeaMerone and my figures produced way back in July 2020, which posited a population IFR of ~0.53-0.82%https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220321809 …

          2 replies 3 retweets 63 likes
          Show this thread
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. mike johansen‏ @mikejohansenmd Feb 22
          Replying to @GidMK

          Will people admit they were wrong?

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 22
          Replying to @mikejohansenmd

          Do they ever?

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Seth Trueger‏Verified account @MDaware Feb 22
          Replying to @GidMK

          Seth Trueger Retweeted Seth Trueger

          yeahhttps://twitter.com/MDaware/status/1259170246642016261 …

          Seth Trueger added,

          Seth TruegerVerified account @MDaware
          keep this in mind if you see someone estimate an IFR below 0.277% (1/361) https://twitter.com/AlissaStollwerk/status/1259130153973747719 …
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        1. Fyodor‏ @Fyodor32768 Feb 22
          Replying to @GidMK @notdred

          1/400 people in New Jersey. 1/300 in El Paso.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Dr Ex-Brit‏ @XBrit4News Feb 22
          Replying to @GidMK

          The true number of COVID deaths is probably about 25% higher than 500K because of undercounting. Particularly in rural areas and the Confederacy. I’d guess the IFR is about 0.8% in the US. This has a societal dependency of course, probably much higher in less advanced countries.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Jonathan Cronk‏ @jpcronk Feb 22
          Replying to @XBrit4News @GidMK

          At least. There were >525k excess natural cause deaths in the United States in 2020, as of the 2/17 CDC data. Nearly a third of all confirmed COVID infections in the US occurred in 2021. The US is closer to 750k deaths than 500k at this point.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Aaron‏ @canuck5551 Feb 22
          Replying to @GidMK

          It’s not impossible if you arbitrarily exclude deaths as being not COVID-related without evidence in order to push your narrative. Checkmate!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Schism‏ @raskolnehkov Feb 23
          Replying to @GidMK

          It was impossible in May when more than .1% of NYC was dead... But thanks for the update

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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