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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 22

    The United States recently reached 500,000 COVID-19 deaths That means the POPULATION fatality rate (i.e. deaths/population) for the US is 0.15% With an estimated ~25% infection rate, the INFECTION fatality rate is ~.6%

    6:24 PM - 22 Feb 2021
    • 109 Retweets
    • 337 Likes
    • Hinnack69 Rob Soltysik Eileen B Enrique Otero JP Christopher King alpix yatakalam Marcelli
    15 replies 109 retweets 337 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 22

        Really puts into perspective how wildly off the earlier estimates of very low IFRs in the US were. An IFR of 0.1% is numerically impossible at this point

        8 replies 17 retweets 151 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 22

        Another important piece of perspective is that, in the 12 months from March 2020-March 2021, COVID-19 will likely be the leading cause of death in the US

        3 replies 29 retweets 114 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 22

        Also, these numbers align surprisingly well with @LeaMerone and my figures produced way back in July 2020, which posited a population IFR of ~0.53-0.82%https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220321809 …

        2 replies 3 retweets 63 likes
        Show this thread
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Gregory Travis‏ @greg_travis Feb 22
        Replying to @GidMK

        In 15% of US counties, 0.30% of the entire population has diedpic.twitter.com/1J6L3DSt0i

        4 replies 24 retweets 75 likes
      3. Dan Cyr‏ @danjcyr Feb 22
        Replying to @greg_travis @GidMK

        And with the undercounts.....

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Jon Stanich‏ @JonStanich Feb 22
        Replying to @GidMK

        Where did you get ~25% infection rate? Studies showed back in July there could easily be 5X more infections than tested cases. This would mean ~144M have been infected which gives ~3% IFR. Do you have a source for 25%?pic.twitter.com/jDCKLMDpmX

        3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Jon Stanich‏ @JonStanich Feb 22
        Replying to @JonStanich @GidMK

        This is the study. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2768834?guestAccessKey=7a5c32e6-3c27-41b3-b46c-43c4a38bbe00&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=072120 …pic.twitter.com/Zmq5ummV7I

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Stuart Wexler‏ @wexlerwriting Feb 22
        Replying to @GidMK @eliowa

        And for those who have sang the false song for months now, what is the IFR and PFR for the seasonal flu?

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. InI4 🌍 Spread Ideas Not Viruses. Fully vaccinated.‏ @InI42 Feb 23
        Replying to @wexlerwriting @GidMK @eliowa

        AFAIK in Germany a very bad flu has an IFR of 0.1% but also infects way fewer people than #Covid19 due to various forms of immunity. US kind of proves IFR of #Covid19 is > 0.17% (as so many deaths you officially have today) and there are no signs of immunity in the population.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Kano  🇪🇺 #zeroCovid‏ @falsel_net Feb 22
        Replying to @GidMK

        Do you mean that cumulative ~25% of the US population has been infected over the course of one year? Or, is the virus currently spread among ~25% of the US population? In other words, is IFR calculated on cumulative prevalence, or incidence of #SARSCoV2 infections?

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Tyler By Day‏ @TheSleepOrg Feb 22
        Replying to @falsel_net @GidMK

        Cumulative.

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      4. End of conversation

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