"Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections...Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28M confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity"https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731?fbclid=IwAR3UF_1vRLwBXIzPB53hXkvlfkf5zulyJdHGbteoFBA1xkHNEFVFBFogh-A …
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Replying to @rachbarnhart
That is factually incorrect. At the start of the pandemic, certainly 10:1 not unlikely, but since mid-June it's been more like 5:1 and more recently 3:1 or fewer
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Replying to @GidMK
The full sentence that I removed words from to fit says the time of the infection matters - today you multiply confirmed infections by 4 per CDC, so he’s correct.
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Replying to @rachbarnhart
The CDC has modelled the number of infections and puts it at very substantially below 55%. The current estimate is 27-30% total in the US
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Replying to @GidMK @rachbarnhart
It is, of course, an inherently uncertain measure, but I believe the current multiplier is closer to 2
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Replying to @rachbarnhart
For February-December 2020 in total. If it was 1 in 10 in Feb, that means it is mathematically impossible for it to have been 1 in 4 in December
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Replying to @GidMK
Not sure what we are arguing. I just told you I am fine with CDC method, as I am fine with challenging suppositions in WSJ piece.
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Replying to @rachbarnhart
I'm merely pointing out that the statement you quoted is incorrect
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Replying to @GidMK
I agree with your reasoning, but we have no way of proving who’s right or “factually correct,” do we? These are estimates.
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It is incorrect based on the CDCs estimate, and indeed most others including my own
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