"Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections...Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28M confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity"https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731?fbclid=IwAR3UF_1vRLwBXIzPB53hXkvlfkf5zulyJdHGbteoFBA1xkHNEFVFBFogh-A …
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The full sentence that I removed words from to fit says the time of the infection matters - today you multiply confirmed infections by 4 per CDC, so he’s correct.
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The CDC has modelled the number of infections and puts it at very substantially below 55%. The current estimate is 27-30% total in the US
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New conversation -
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I don’t find the ultimate conclusion - dramatic decrease in cases and case severity by April due to combined effects of prior infection and vaccination, in certain locations - to be unreasonable, even if some of the assumptions may be flawed.
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