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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 18

      A very interesting paper on global excess mortality during COVID-19 from @hippopedoid "...suggests that the world’s COVID-19 death toll may be at least 1.6 times higher than the reported number of confirmed deaths"https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250604v1 …

      8 replies 70 retweets 144 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 18

      Basically, they predicted excess mortality based on previous years using a linear forecast, and capturing seasonal and other variation in mortalitypic.twitter.com/7HK5k55LlQ

      1 reply 3 retweets 15 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 18

      This came up with some very interesting results. For example, here are the excess mortality curves for Australia/New Zealand with #ZeroCovidpic.twitter.com/g9YwO6p2LF

      2 replies 8 retweets 22 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 18

      Compare them to two countries with massive COVID-19 outbreaks - Mexico and Russiapic.twitter.com/sg6KPN5OhN

      2 replies 6 retweets 20 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 18

      Anyway, the paper is worth a read, but the idea that there could be nearly double the number of COVID-19 deaths in the world compared to the confirmed reported ones is quite staggering

      7:42 PM - 18 Feb 2021
      • 5 Retweets
      • 39 Likes
      • 💧 Ian "Department of Diseasology" 🍩 Musgrave The Erudite Luddite Duncan Moore kfunk937 Stormageddon, Dark Lord of All Tara Moriarty Ivan B. James Ashburner YYZ Jane Lowry 😷💉💉 🇨🇦 🏳️‍🌈ally
      7 replies 5 retweets 39 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. RocketWood‏ @g_rockets Feb 18
          Replying to @GidMK

          How accurate is linear forecasting for predicting excess mortality? Will read later but I hope they include that otherwise... meh

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Ariel Karlinsky‏ @ArielKarlinsky Feb 18
          Replying to @g_rockets @GidMK

          In an updated version we compare our simple model to the much more complex farrington model, differences are tiny. Excess mortality is driven by the 2020 signal, not by the model's predictions.

          0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. BZ‏ @Bozaster Feb 18
          Replying to @GidMK

          Completely unsurprising given the inclination to hush up covid deaths or the unavailability of infrastructure to properly count or report them. There's really very few if any incentives to exaggerate covid deaths. The FT have been tracking excess for months.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Ariel Karlinsky‏ @ArielKarlinsky Feb 19
          Replying to @Bozaster @GidMK

          @FT should incorporate our #WorldMortality data soon :) Our coverage is wider and more up to date.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Jonathan Cronk‏ @jpcronk Feb 18
          Replying to @GidMK

          The US had >510k more deaths in 2020 than 2019, >500k of which were natural cause deaths. In most states only 60-70% of excess natural cause deaths list COVID in the cause of death section of the death certificates. With lag, actual US toll is ~550k in 2020 alone.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Zach Hensel‏ @alchemytoday Feb 19
          Replying to @jpcronk @GidMK

          North Carolina's last data point in the CDC excess mortality tool is October 31... I wonder what they do so much differently than other states that causes so much lag.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. New conversation
        2. luca85‏ @lucaxx85 Feb 19
          Replying to @GidMK

          The most curious thing is the ratio between excess deaths and covid "certified" deaths in different countries. In Italy many excess deaths are unexplained, in Sweden there are more covid deaths than excess deaths

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Ariel Karlinsky‏ @ArielKarlinsky Feb 19
          Replying to @lucaxx85 @GidMK

          In developed countries, the ratios are at about 1 for most. The most interesting finding (IMHO) are the large ratios in less developed countries, whether South America or Eastern Europe/Central Asia. 1

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. s.t.‏ @stefanct Feb 19
          Replying to @GidMK

          why staggering? this reads very much as if you are actually surprised, which surprises me quite a bit. ;) analyses by @ft's @jburnmurdoch has shown this in spring 2020 already.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Elikser‏ @TunnelForce9 Feb 19
          Replying to @GidMK

          The same has been said for seasonal Influenza.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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