A very interesting paper on global excess mortality during COVID-19 from @hippopedoid
"...suggests that the world’s COVID-19 death toll may be at least 1.6 times higher than the reported number of confirmed deaths"https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250604v1 …
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How accurate is linear forecasting for predicting excess mortality? Will read later but I hope they include that otherwise... meh
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In an updated version we compare our simple model to the much more complex farrington model, differences are tiny. Excess mortality is driven by the 2020 signal, not by the model's predictions.
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Completely unsurprising given the inclination to hush up covid deaths or the unavailability of infrastructure to properly count or report them. There's really very few if any incentives to exaggerate covid deaths. The FT have been tracking excess for months.
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@FT should incorporate our#WorldMortality data soon :) Our coverage is wider and more up to date. - Show replies
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The US had >510k more deaths in 2020 than 2019, >500k of which were natural cause deaths. In most states only 60-70% of excess natural cause deaths list COVID in the cause of death section of the death certificates. With lag, actual US toll is ~550k in 2020 alone.
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North Carolina's last data point in the CDC excess mortality tool is October 31... I wonder what they do so much differently than other states that causes so much lag.
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The most curious thing is the ratio between excess deaths and covid "certified" deaths in different countries. In Italy many excess deaths are unexplained, in Sweden there are more covid deaths than excess deaths
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In developed countries, the ratios are at about 1 for most. The most interesting finding (IMHO) are the large ratios in less developed countries, whether South America or Eastern Europe/Central Asia. 1
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why staggering? this reads very much as if you are actually surprised, which surprises me quite a bit. ;) analyses by
@ft's@jburnmurdoch has shown this in spring 2020 already.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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The same has been said for seasonal Influenza.
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