Basically, they predicted excess mortality based on previous years using a linear forecast, and capturing seasonal and other variation in mortalitypic.twitter.com/7HK5k55LlQ
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Basically, they predicted excess mortality based on previous years using a linear forecast, and capturing seasonal and other variation in mortalitypic.twitter.com/7HK5k55LlQ
This came up with some very interesting results. For example, here are the excess mortality curves for Australia/New Zealand with #ZeroCovidpic.twitter.com/g9YwO6p2LF
Compare them to two countries with massive COVID-19 outbreaks - Mexico and Russiapic.twitter.com/sg6KPN5OhN
Anyway, the paper is worth a read, but the idea that there could be nearly double the number of COVID-19 deaths in the world compared to the confirmed reported ones is quite staggering
The other author is @ArielKarlinsky.
Hi Gideon, #WorldMortality is by @hippopedoid and myself.
Since publishing the preprint, the number of countries is up to 79.
We have updated the data and analysis several times, both are freely available.
Data: https://github.com/akarlinsky/world_mortality …
Analysis: https://github.com/dkobak/excess-mortality …pic.twitter.com/sRzR9cvs7I
I am looking at a with/without view on the Pandemic. From an economic/complexity point of view I ask your opinion for this hypothesis on the reasoning
https://twitter.com/PeterSpitters/status/1359250450667757580?s=19 …
Nice to see people looking at total deaths. Not nice to see the actual numbers of course. This is important data and reflects what I imagine many of us suspected.
@GidMK This would not surprise me too much. In SA the excess death is more than double the reported death.
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