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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Hilda Bastian, PhD‏ @hildabast Feb 18

      Study from Mayo system: 31,069 people vaccinated with mRNAs & 31,069 propensity-matched control. For 2 doses on schedule, vaccine efficacy 88.7% (CI: 69-97). People with Covid-19 less likely to be hospitalized, but intensive care similar (small numbers) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.15.21251623v1 …pic.twitter.com/l1ECZDw4KY

      7 replies 18 retweets 67 likes
    2. This Tweet is unavailable.
    3. Hilda Bastian, PhD‏ @hildabast Feb 18
      Replying to @jbakcoleman

      To test positive in that week they'd have been infected before they had the vaccine. No, health systems wouldn't have mobility data. If it's behavior related to vaccination, then I think it's more likely to be people thinking Covid symptoms are just vaccine reactions.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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    6. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom Feb 18
      Replying to @dylanhmorris @jbakcoleman @hildabast

      FWIW, any "playing it safe" effect should largely start when you get the vaccine appointment, not when you get the shot itself, so I wouldn't rule out effects even on day 1.

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 18
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @dylanhmorris and

      Also the effect is likely to be an aggregate of behaviours even before getting vaccinated given the observational nature of the study so entirely plausible that the early divergence is not due to the vaccine

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    8. Hilda Bastian, PhD‏ @hildabast Feb 18
      Replying to @GidMK @CT_Bergstrom and

      I think differences in seeking testing when you think you're having adverse reactions is far more likely.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 18
      Replying to @hildabast @CT_Bergstrom and

      Perhaps, but any propensity model is only as good as the included covariates, and (for example) this one doesn't appear to have adjusted for income. It's just one possible explanation, but it's hard to discount entirely

      6:36 PM - 18 Feb 2021
      • 1 Like
      • Amanda Makulec MPH
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Matt Hitchings‏ @MHitchingsEpi Feb 19
          Replying to @GidMK @hildabast and

          This is important because test negative designs won’t be able to distinguish between these two explanations. If it’s changes in testing behaviour, that’s a problem for TNDs

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Hilda Bastian, PhD‏ @hildabast Feb 19
          Replying to @MHitchingsEpi @GidMK and

          Unexpected pattern resolved after that first week, resuming the pattern expected from the trials. People not recognizing Covid in interim because they think it's vaccine reactions has been a concern all along. I think picture will become clearer with more studies.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies

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