In the same vein, you cannot discount the possibility that 2019 was not an anomaly and that the mortality drop was part of a trend, which would mean a death rate of roughly 88k and excess mortality of 10k. Uncertainty cuts both ways
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I'm not discounting it. I already showed you that using robust regression from the last 20 years of data gives you around 94k.
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Replying to @TedPetrou @zorinaq
And what happens if you assume that rather than being an outlier 2019 is instead an acceleration of the existing trend?
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We don't really know. We'll need another 10 years to see where the current trend sits. I'd say its unlikely its an acceleration as the rate of change of mortality rate is highest for 50-60 crowd and slowly goes to 0 for the 100+ in the last 10 yearspic.twitter.com/JtwlXpNUMq
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Replying to @TedPetrou @zorinaq
I'd say it's unlikely that there was going to be the biggest excess mortality in Sweden since WW2 without COVID-19
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Yes, there was substantial excess. At least 2k. Maybe 8k if mortality has really dropped. But the excess is all coming from the 65+ group. 0-64 had very low mortality rates, just slightly worse than 2019.
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Replying to @TedPetrou @zorinaq
No, you misunderstand. Your 96k mortality assumes that Sweden would have had the highest excess mortality since the second world war in 2020 if there had been no COVID-19. It's an unlikely assumption that is totally removed from the data
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Using mortality rates from 2 years ago is an unlikely assumption?
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Replying to @TedPetrou @zorinaq
Of course. When was the last time Sweden had a totally flat mortality curve for 2 consecutive years? Based on the 1950-present data I do not believe it has happened once
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The chart you love sharing has many examples. Most of the 1960 and 70s. You are putting way too much weight into this trend. There is enormous variance as we have seen in 2020 (and 2019). Same thing in New Zealand. Last 2 months the 80+ group mortality rate is up 10%pic.twitter.com/HR4aDoNqmE
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I didn't share anything, but you're still missing the point - your default assumption is something that hasn't happened in at least 50 years. That is extremely unlikely
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Honestly, I do not really care about Sweden's excess mortality in 2020 either way, but the graph you've shared is quite clearly incorrect and continuously doubling down on such a mistake is just tedious
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