If you were to take a realistic predictive interval taking into account the fact that 2019 is *likely* but not *definitely* an outlier, your true result would probably include 96k but also dip down into ~88k or lower
-
-
The chart you love sharing has many examples. Most of the 1960 and 70s. You are putting way too much weight into this trend. There is enormous variance as we have seen in 2020 (and 2019). Same thing in New Zealand. Last 2 months the 80+ group mortality rate is up 10%pic.twitter.com/HR4aDoNqmE
-
I didn't share anything, but you're still missing the point - your default assumption is something that hasn't happened in at least 50 years. That is extremely unlikely
- Show replies
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.