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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Teddy Petrou‏ @TedPetrou Feb 16
      Replying to @GidMK @zorinaq

      The trend has been slowing down and its very difficult to extrapolate. There is a probability of increase. Just like life expectancy in the US decreased for men in 2019 (I believe). Strange things happen. This is how most people define ranges -formally it is a confidence interval

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 16
      Replying to @TedPetrou @zorinaq

      Actually, that is not the correct definition of a confidence interval. It sounds more like you're trying to create a predictive interval taking into account uncertainty around the predicted decline, except it's very one-sided

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 16
      Replying to @GidMK @TedPetrou @zorinaq

      If you were to take a realistic predictive interval taking into account the fact that 2019 is *likely* but not *definitely* an outlier, your true result would probably include 96k but also dip down into ~88k or lower

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Teddy Petrou‏ @TedPetrou Feb 16
      Replying to @GidMK @zorinaq

      The issue is that you weren't thinking about intervals. Theres no guarantee that Sweden mortality would decline because of historical trend. The rate of decrease has slowed. 2018 mortality rates give you just about 96k deaths. You cannot dismiss this as a possibility.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 16
      Replying to @TedPetrou @zorinaq

      In the same vein, you cannot discount the possibility that 2019 was not an anomaly and that the mortality drop was part of a trend, which would mean a death rate of roughly 88k and excess mortality of 10k. Uncertainty cuts both ways

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Teddy Petrou‏ @TedPetrou Feb 16
      Replying to @GidMK @zorinaq

      I'm not discounting it. I already showed you that using robust regression from the last 20 years of data gives you around 94k.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 16
      Replying to @TedPetrou @zorinaq

      And what happens if you assume that rather than being an outlier 2019 is instead an acceleration of the existing trend?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Teddy Petrou‏ @TedPetrou Feb 16
      Replying to @GidMK @zorinaq

      We don't really know. We'll need another 10 years to see where the current trend sits. I'd say its unlikely its an acceleration as the rate of change of mortality rate is highest for 50-60 crowd and slowly goes to 0 for the 100+ in the last 10 yearspic.twitter.com/JtwlXpNUMq

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 16
      Replying to @TedPetrou @zorinaq

      I'd say it's unlikely that there was going to be the biggest excess mortality in Sweden since WW2 without COVID-19

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Teddy Petrou‏ @TedPetrou Feb 16
      Replying to @GidMK @zorinaq

      Yes, there was substantial excess. At least 2k. Maybe 8k if mortality has really dropped. But the excess is all coming from the 65+ group. 0-64 had very low mortality rates, just slightly worse than 2019.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 16
      Replying to @TedPetrou @zorinaq

      No, you misunderstand. Your 96k mortality assumes that Sweden would have had the highest excess mortality since the second world war in 2020 if there had been no COVID-19. It's an unlikely assumption that is totally removed from the data

      7:46 PM - 16 Feb 2021
      • 1 Like
      • Marc Bevand
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Teddy Petrou‏ @TedPetrou Feb 16
          Replying to @GidMK @zorinaq

          Using mortality rates from 2 years ago is an unlikely assumption?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 16
          Replying to @TedPetrou @zorinaq

          Of course. When was the last time Sweden had a totally flat mortality curve for 2 consecutive years? Based on the 1950-present data I do not believe it has happened once

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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