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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Teddy Petrou‏ @TedPetrou Feb 16
      Replying to @GidMK @zorinaq

      I agree that ignoring a possible downward trend in mortality was an oversight on my part. Something like 93-96k sounds about right for excess of 2-5k.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 16
      Replying to @TedPetrou @zorinaq

      96k would be ignoring the downtrend tho. By your simple regression model, it should be around 94k, and my guess is a more complex inference would revise that downward somewhat after taking into account the uncertainty of 2019 and previous years

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Teddy Petrou‏ @TedPetrou Feb 16
      Replying to @GidMK @zorinaq

      Im not ignoring it at all. There is large variance here and we don't know if the downtrend would continue. The 5 years of 2014-2018 were relatively flat. Thats why I gave a range. 96k would be at the high end and unlikely.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 16
      Replying to @TedPetrou @zorinaq

      I mean, it's a strong trend that has been present for the last 50 years not just in Sweden but across most/all developed nations. 96k requires you to assume that such a trend would not only discontinue but, given the 2019 figures, reverse!

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Teddy Petrou‏ @TedPetrou Feb 16
      Replying to @GidMK @zorinaq

      The trend has been slowing down and its very difficult to extrapolate. There is a probability of increase. Just like life expectancy in the US decreased for men in 2019 (I believe). Strange things happen. This is how most people define ranges -formally it is a confidence interval

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 16
      Replying to @TedPetrou @zorinaq

      Actually, that is not the correct definition of a confidence interval. It sounds more like you're trying to create a predictive interval taking into account uncertainty around the predicted decline, except it's very one-sided

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 16
      Replying to @GidMK @TedPetrou @zorinaq

      If you were to take a realistic predictive interval taking into account the fact that 2019 is *likely* but not *definitely* an outlier, your true result would probably include 96k but also dip down into ~88k or lower

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. Teddy Petrou‏ @TedPetrou Feb 16
      Replying to @GidMK @zorinaq

      88k deaths would be an elderly decrease of ~12% over a 2 year period. This would be by far the largest 2 year decrease in the last 20 years. 2019 was already the largest decrease in the last 20 years for the elderly. Going back to back would be essentially impossible.

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 16
      Replying to @TedPetrou @zorinaq

      The last time that Sweden saw an increase in mortality of the sort you're proposing WITHOUT COVID between 2019-2020 was I believe 1944. They are both equally implausible, but if you're going to embrace the uncertainty it's ridiculous to pretend it only goes one way

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. Teddy Petrou‏ @TedPetrou Feb 16
      Replying to @GidMK @zorinaq

      An increase of 0% over 2 years? I'm saying if mortality rates were the same as they were 2 years ago. As in - if 2020 had 2018 mortality rates. Try again.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 16
      Replying to @TedPetrou @zorinaq

      Yes, you're pretending that 2019 never happened, for whatever reason. But it did indeed, and so a death rate of 96k in 2020 would have been unprecedented in the data since the second world war

      7:26 PM - 16 Feb 2021
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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