Yes wow that's a very simple point to misunderstand. If there's a strong decreasing trend, you have to account for the EXPECTED number, not the average!
Ideally, what you'd do is a Bayesian inference that takes into account the uncertainty of both the initial downtrend and the outlier of 2019, which I suspect is what the SCB has done, but even your crude example shows how useless it is to simply use the mean
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I agree that ignoring a possible downward trend in mortality was an oversight on my part. Something like 93-96k sounds about right for excess of 2-5k.
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96k would be ignoring the downtrend tho. By your simple regression model, it should be around 94k, and my guess is a more complex inference would revise that downward somewhat after taking into account the uncertainty of 2019 and previous years
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