This is Imperial’s model of what will happen in the next year assuming varying degrees of vaccine efficacy. It seems insanely pessimistic to me, but I am only a barstool epidemiologist. We’ll see who’s right. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/958913/S1024_SPI-M_vaccination_ask_Imperial_College.pdf …
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Replying to @cjsnowdon
As with all modelling, the devil is very much in the details/assumptions. I think part of the pessimism here is their assumptions around vaccine efficacy - this looks like an assumed efficacy for the variant, which is pretty uncertainpic.twitter.com/yfimnxGh97
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Replying to @GidMK
They were way off even in the month their model was published in. To say it’s garbage in, garbage out would be flattering.pic.twitter.com/Jr9Q5n1q01
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Replying to @cjsnowdon
I'm confused, I can't see that figure in either of the reports? It is a bit odd that they're being so pessimistic at this point, most of their modelling has been pretty impressive during the pandemic
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Replying to @GidMK
Christopher Snowdon Retweeted Christopher Snowdon
Sorry, I thought you were replying to the tweet I put up tonight. Similar story.https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1360016937888153604 …
Christopher Snowdon added,
Christopher SnowdonVerified account @cjsnowdonAnother model, this time from Warwick, reckons there will be nearly 2,000 deaths a day in the middle of summer with everybody vaccinated. They’ve really jumped the shark this time. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/958738/S1023_SPI-M_Vaccine_scenarios_.pdf … pic.twitter.com/AfQe7bA14pShow this thread1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
Oh right didn't see that one
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