This is Imperial’s model of what will happen in the next year assuming varying degrees of vaccine efficacy. It seems insanely pessimistic to me, but I am only a barstool epidemiologist. We’ll see who’s right. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/958913/S1024_SPI-M_vaccination_ask_Imperial_College.pdf …
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Replying to @cjsnowdon
As with all modelling, the devil is very much in the details/assumptions. I think part of the pessimism here is their assumptions around vaccine efficacy - this looks like an assumed efficacy for the variant, which is pretty uncertainpic.twitter.com/yfimnxGh97
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Replying to @GidMK @cjsnowdon
If the vaccines really do only prevent 48-60% of mild/asymptomatic infections, then there will be far more infection of unvaccinated people and thus greater harm, but I'm not sure about those numbers they seem quite low to me
4:14 PM - 11 Feb 2021
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