This is Imperial’s model of what will happen in the next year assuming varying degrees of vaccine efficacy. It seems insanely pessimistic to me, but I am only a barstool epidemiologist. We’ll see who’s right. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/958913/S1024_SPI-M_vaccination_ask_Imperial_College.pdf …
-
-
If the vaccines really do only prevent 48-60% of mild/asymptomatic infections, then there will be far more infection of unvaccinated people and thus greater harm, but I'm not sure about those numbers they seem quite low to me
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
They were way off even in the month their model was published in. To say it’s garbage in, garbage out would be flattering.pic.twitter.com/Jr9Q5n1q01
-
I'm confused, I can't see that figure in either of the reports? It is a bit odd that they're being so pessimistic at this point, most of their modelling has been pretty impressive during the pandemic
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
Not really as it’s seasonal - so with no vaccine it would be like last year except lots of people have had it now - so it would be almost fine - just like last summer
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.