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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Babak Javid‏ @javid_lab Feb 10
      Replying to @GidMK @CT_Bergstrom

      Reality is that all previous pandemics have ended, and it's the extreme end of unlikely that this one won't. This one may (very likely) be the first in which vaccines have helped end the pandemic phase, at least for rich countries.

      3 replies 3 retweets 41 likes
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 10
      Replying to @javid_lab @CT_Bergstrom

      Agreed. I think the likelihood is that the pandemic phase will be considerably shortened due to vaccines, given that we're only ~12 months in and rollouts are already taking place worldwide

      1 reply 0 retweets 17 likes
    3. Babak Javid‏ @javid_lab Feb 10
      Replying to @GidMK @CT_Bergstrom

      We didn't have a non-influenza pandemic in the 20th Century. With an R0 double that of influenza, one would expect this pandemic phase to be quicker no matter what. NPIs have reduced Rt++, but much more in rich countries (will have vaccine) than poor countries (wait for vaccine).

      2 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
    4. Pieter Peach‏ @DrPieterPeach Feb 10
      Replying to @javid_lab @GidMK @CT_Bergstrom

      Although we’ve never implemented any NPIs for previous influenza pandemics so it’s a difficult comparison to make.

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    5. Babak Javid‏ @javid_lab Feb 10
      Replying to @DrPieterPeach @GidMK @CT_Bergstrom

      yes, and incorporated into my response! Although it seems that NPIs were far more prevalent for 1918 influenza than I, at least, had appreciated before last year!

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
    6. Pieter Peach‏ @DrPieterPeach Feb 10
      Replying to @javid_lab @GidMK @CT_Bergstrom

      You have me thinking now whether there actually is a correlation between the extent of NPIs implemented and a country’s GDP...

      3 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 10
      Replying to @DrPieterPeach @javid_lab @CT_Bergstrom

      I think an even more interesting question is whether the *efficacy* of such interventions improves with GDP. I reckon the impact of NPIs might be substantially different depending on income

      4 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
    8. Babak Javid‏ @javid_lab Feb 10
      Replying to @GidMK @DrPieterPeach @CT_Bergstrom

      yep. In retrospect (and possibly in prospect!), India's lockdown caused utter misery, achieved nothing in terms of Covid control and increased deaths due to other causes.

      3 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
    9. Pieter Peach‏ @DrPieterPeach Feb 10
      Replying to @javid_lab @GidMK @CT_Bergstrom

      Is this verifiable somehow? It sounds like it may be a slightly broad generalisation. Indian states are very much independent governance bodies (excluding military) so a coordinated national response seems unlikely. I may be wrong but would like to read an analysis if you have it

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Babak Javid‏ @javid_lab Feb 10
      Replying to @DrPieterPeach @GidMK @CT_Bergstrom

      In terms of misery: going by the extensive news coverage esp for the poor. In terms of Covid control: it was a blip, at a time when the big wave hadn't hit India yet, and in terms of collateral damage: look at e.g. damage to TB control and childhood vax programmes.

      3 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 10
      Replying to @javid_lab @DrPieterPeach @CT_Bergstrom

      I'm not sure I agree that the collateral damage can entirely be blamed on government action. Even countries with no govt action at all (Tanzania!) have seen pretty big disruptions in TB control and vaccinations due to the pandemic

      9:48 PM - 10 Feb 2021
      • 4 Likes
      • EpidemioLakshmy Loretta Torrago Babak Javid David Ridley
      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Babak Javid‏ @javid_lab Feb 10
          Replying to @GidMK @DrPieterPeach @CT_Bergstrom

          yes, this is fair-ish.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 10
          Replying to @javid_lab @DrPieterPeach @CT_Bergstrom

          I suspect we'll spend the next decade or two untangling exactly what issues were caused by govt action and what was simply a consequence of the pandemic itself. Such a hard question to answer!

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. Show replies

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