Reality is that all previous pandemics have ended, and it's the extreme end of unlikely that this one won't. This one may (very likely) be the first in which vaccines have helped end the pandemic phase, at least for rich countries.
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Replying to @javid_lab @CT_Bergstrom
Agreed. I think the likelihood is that the pandemic phase will be considerably shortened due to vaccines, given that we're only ~12 months in and rollouts are already taking place worldwide
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Replying to @GidMK @CT_Bergstrom
We didn't have a non-influenza pandemic in the 20th Century. With an R0 double that of influenza, one would expect this pandemic phase to be quicker no matter what. NPIs have reduced Rt++, but much more in rich countries (will have vaccine) than poor countries (wait for vaccine).
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Although we’ve never implemented any NPIs for previous influenza pandemics so it’s a difficult comparison to make.
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yes, and incorporated into my response! Although it seems that NPIs were far more prevalent for 1918 influenza than I, at least, had appreciated before last year!
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You have me thinking now whether there actually is a correlation between the extent of NPIs implemented and a country’s GDP...
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I think an even more interesting question is whether the *efficacy* of such interventions improves with GDP. I reckon the impact of NPIs might be substantially different depending on income
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yep. In retrospect (and possibly in prospect!), India's lockdown caused utter misery, achieved nothing in terms of Covid control and increased deaths due to other causes.
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Is this verifiable somehow? It sounds like it may be a slightly broad generalisation. Indian states are very much independent governance bodies (excluding military) so a coordinated national response seems unlikely. I may be wrong but would like to read an analysis if you have it
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In terms of misery: going by the extensive news coverage esp for the poor. In terms of Covid control: it was a blip, at a time when the big wave hadn't hit India yet, and in terms of collateral damage: look at e.g. damage to TB control and childhood vax programmes.
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I'm not sure I agree that the collateral damage can entirely be blamed on government action. Even countries with no govt action at all (Tanzania!) have seen pretty big disruptions in TB control and vaccinations due to the pandemic
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yes, this is fair-ish.
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I suspect we'll spend the next decade or two untangling exactly what issues were caused by govt action and what was simply a consequence of the pandemic itself. Such a hard question to answer!
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