Reality is that all previous pandemics have ended, and it's the extreme end of unlikely that this one won't. This one may (very likely) be the first in which vaccines have helped end the pandemic phase, at least for rich countries.
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Replying to @javid_lab @CT_Bergstrom
Agreed. I think the likelihood is that the pandemic phase will be considerably shortened due to vaccines, given that we're only ~12 months in and rollouts are already taking place worldwide
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Replying to @GidMK @CT_Bergstrom
We didn't have a non-influenza pandemic in the 20th Century. With an R0 double that of influenza, one would expect this pandemic phase to be quicker no matter what. NPIs have reduced Rt++, but much more in rich countries (will have vaccine) than poor countries (wait for vaccine).
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Although we’ve never implemented any NPIs for previous influenza pandemics so it’s a difficult comparison to make.
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yes, and incorporated into my response! Although it seems that NPIs were far more prevalent for 1918 influenza than I, at least, had appreciated before last year!
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You have me thinking now whether there actually is a correlation between the extent of NPIs implemented and a country’s GDP...
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I think an even more interesting question is whether the *efficacy* of such interventions improves with GDP. I reckon the impact of NPIs might be substantially different depending on income
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yep. In retrospect (and possibly in prospect!), India's lockdown caused utter misery, achieved nothing in terms of Covid control and increased deaths due to other causes.
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Replying to @javid_lab @GidMK and
Interesting—I interpreted
@GidMK as talking about efficacy against covid, but you raise an even bigger point about their costs/viability: the more a country's economy is centered on provision of services by knowledge workers who can work from home, the less the economic harm.2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @RidleyDM @javid_lab and
Possibly a factor, but I’m not sure Vietnam, Uruguay nor Mongolia would fit that description. Sweden is well known for the supportive infrastructure enabling remote work.
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Yes I think it's important to remember that NPIs are far more diverse than just stay at home orders and that most of the biggest success stories have had complex and multilayered approaches rather than a single blunt instrument
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Replying to @GidMK @DrPieterPeach and
Oh, completely agreed; my point was just that if you do tell people to stay at home, the more of them have a job involving writing and having Zoom meetings on a computer, the less economic damage that will inflict.
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