Naturally acquired immunity is conspicuously absent from the calculations in this story.https://www.statnews.com/2021/02/10/vaccines-alone-wont-end-pandemic/ …
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We didn't have a non-influenza pandemic in the 20th Century. With an R0 double that of influenza, one would expect this pandemic phase to be quicker no matter what. NPIs have reduced Rt++, but much more in rich countries (will have vaccine) than poor countries (wait for vaccine).
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Although we’ve never implemented any NPIs for previous influenza pandemics so it’s a difficult comparison to make.
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