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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 10

      A lot of people have been talking about it, so I thought I might do a bit of a thread on plausible reasons for the decline in COVID-19 cases in places where behaviour hasn't changed much recently 1/npic.twitter.com/QXNwGErMcN

      20 replies 45 retweets 124 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Stephen Dugmore‏ @StephenBDugmore Feb 10
      Replying to @GidMK

      Makes sense. But do you see seasonality playing zero role?

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 10
      Replying to @StephenBDugmore

      I think the role of seasonality has been overemphasized. Given that numbers started falling in winter, I suspect that other factors are more at play, although obviously this is speculative

      4:52 PM - 10 Feb 2021
      • 1 Retweet
      • 17 Likes
      • Jenn A Mary Mcwilliams Oezguer Yalcin Ivan B. FVM Atomsk's Sanakan Whitney R. Robinson noa-witheringly Bernhard Unsöld
      5 replies 1 retweet 17 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Stephen Dugmore‏ @StephenBDugmore Feb 10
          Replying to @GidMK

          I agree it looks like it would play a minor role but would be surprised if it plays no role at all.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. aeon‏ @AeonCoin Feb 10
          Replying to @StephenBDugmore @GidMK

          The question is how much does the "season" really change between December and January? It could be a factor that crosses a tipping point but only if relatively close to a threshold already via behavior and immunity.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Stephen Dugmore‏ @StephenBDugmore Feb 10
          Replying to @GidMK

          If you look at Hcov OC43 (green) in this study of coronaviruses in Michigan, numbers also effectively fall during winter (peak in January). SARS cov2's peak is only really a few weeks earlier in December Are those few weeks enough to discount seasonality? https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/222/1/9/5815743 …pic.twitter.com/POZaxvT0x1

          1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
        3. ElZorres9‏ @ElZorres9 Feb 11
          Replying to @StephenBDugmore @GidMK

          Obviously not. But it's cooler to say seasonality factor is overrated.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
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        2. escalator educator‏ @eSCulati0n Feb 12
          Replying to @louispaulboon @GidMK @StephenBDugmore

          escalator educator Retweeted

          https://twitter.com/goddeketal/status/1359180247225274374 …

          escalator educator added,

          This Tweet is unavailable.
          0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
        3. End of conversation
        1. Andreas Lönnmo 🏳️‍🌈‏ @JarvsoLonnmo Feb 10
          Replying to @GidMK @StephenBDugmore

          I agree that it’s plausible that behaviour hugely impacts HIT, but when it comes to seasonality, at least in Sweden, SARS-CoV 2 seems to follow other respiratory virus. These graphs shows cases (top) compared with calls to Swedish national healthcare line (1177).pic.twitter.com/UIMTTkU6Vq

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          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Kindra Crick  🧩 🧠 🧬‏ @K_Crick Feb 18
          Replying to @GidMK @StephenBDugmore

          IDK, seasonality of other coronavirus seem to be similar... That green line looks like Oregon’s cases. Our mitigation measures have been pretty constant... and we are one of the better states keeping SARS under control. https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20224 …pic.twitter.com/zrhWEvGULj

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