A lot of people have been talking about it, so I thought I might do a bit of a thread on plausible reasons for the decline in COVID-19 cases in places where behaviour hasn't changed much recently 1/npic.twitter.com/QXNwGErMcN
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I agree it looks like it would play a minor role but would be surprised if it plays no role at all.
The question is how much does the "season" really change between December and January? It could be a factor that crosses a tipping point but only if relatively close to a threshold already via behavior and immunity.
If you look at Hcov OC43 (green) in this study of coronaviruses in Michigan, numbers also effectively fall during winter (peak in January). SARS cov2's peak is only really a few weeks earlier in December Are those few weeks enough to discount seasonality? https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/222/1/9/5815743 …pic.twitter.com/POZaxvT0x1
Obviously not. But it's cooler to say seasonality factor is overrated.
I agree that it’s plausible that behaviour hugely impacts HIT, but when it comes to seasonality, at least in Sweden, SARS-CoV 2 seems to follow other respiratory virus. These graphs shows cases (top) compared with calls to Swedish national healthcare line (1177).pic.twitter.com/UIMTTkU6Vq
IDK, seasonality of other coronavirus seem to be similar... That green line looks like Oregon’s cases. Our mitigation measures have been pretty constant... and we are one of the better states keeping SARS under control. https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20224 …pic.twitter.com/zrhWEvGULj
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