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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 10

      10/n We tend to think of herd immunity as a fixed concept. Reach a threshold - 30%, 40%, 50% etc - and the disease stops spreading and eventually goes away This is actually only one aspect of herd immunity as an idea

      2 replies 1 retweet 24 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 10

      11/n Herd immunity is ultimately based on a simple fact - if some proportion of people in a population are immune to a disease, the disease will spread less

      1 reply 0 retweets 23 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 10

      12/n The threshold may be when the disease stops spreading - when the reproduction number (Rt) goes below one - but even at lower levels of immunity there will be some impact on the spread of the disease This is what I mean by herd 𝘦𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘴

      5 replies 0 retweets 28 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 10

      13/n What does this have to do with COVID-19? Well, say we're talking about the US. Depending on which estimate you take, somewhere between 20-30% of the entire country has been infected with and recovered from COVID-19pic.twitter.com/2ttjhfIH1A

      1 reply 0 retweets 20 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 10

      14/n In addition, we know from various data sources (this is Google mobility data) that while behaviour might not have changed substantially since late last year, it still isn't *normal* from a 2019 point of viewpic.twitter.com/pOaesOGGZR

      1 reply 0 retweets 28 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 10

      15/n You also have to consider that even mobility doesn't paint a fulsome picture of how our behaviour has changed while living through a global pandemic. There are many minor differences in our lives that may at a population level have an impact on disease spread

      1 reply 0 retweets 20 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 10

      16/n What this means is that it's not unlikely that rather than the traditional R0 of COVID-19 of ~2.5-3, the US is really looking at a number a bit lower than that even before you take immune people into account

      1 reply 1 retweet 18 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 10

      17/n And given that somewhere around 30% of the entire country is immune to the disease - vaccinated+recovered - we are starting to see herd effects come into play This is speculative, but I think a reasonable argument to makepic.twitter.com/ruII2nJX21

      3 replies 0 retweets 28 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 10

      18/n The big caveat to this seemingly good news is that the declining numbers require people in the US to maintain various cautious behaviours until the vaccinated population is much bigger

      2 replies 1 retweet 34 likes
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    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 10

      19/n If this speculation is correct, and everyone entirely dropped their guard against COVID-19, even in places that were very hard-hit you'd expect to see another resurgence of the disease As we did in Manaus

      3 replies 2 retweets 42 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 10

      20/n TL:DR I think a reasonable explanation for declining COVID-19 cases in a number of places is a combination of long-lasting behavioural changes alongside enormous numbers of infections. Hopefully vaccines can bridge the remaining gap in the near future

      4:30 PM - 10 Feb 2021
      • 7 Retweets
      • 76 Likes
      • Eden We gotta yeet this virus 🇺🇸🇨🇦 Ray Dubicki 👩🏻‍💻Joyce Seitzinger #staysafe #getvaccinated Emily E t.d. Zero Blitz Jeremy Pinna Dr Fiona Willer AdvAPD, PhD Gærvern
      12 replies 7 retweets 76 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. wsbgnl‏ @wsbgnl Feb 10
          Replying to @GidMK

          What do you think about the longer run changes in mobility? In the US it appears visits to grocery and pharmacy stores, retail and recreation, and transit stations may have all declined in January to levels not seen since spring. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-mobility-trends … https://www.tracktherecovery.org pic.twitter.com/BQKNYL5ZUp

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. wsbgnl‏ @wsbgnl Feb 10
          Replying to @wsbgnl @GidMK

          Open Table: Seated diners from online, phone, and walk-in reservations https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry …pic.twitter.com/LQSlFMMmUk

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. The Night Watchman‏ @NightWatchman21 Feb 10
          Replying to @GidMK

          There might be another clue in the fact that cases started dropping first in the north, then through the states heading south.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. čuoččuhan‏ @EMSimma Feb 10
          Replying to @GidMK

          Could one explanation be that although no heard immunity in a population as a whole has yet been attained but there might be in some sub groups in the population that have been fueling the spread?

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Jeff‏ @Darchmare Feb 10
          Replying to @EMSimma @GidMK

          This is a good point. Nursing home residents in particular, as I understand it, were among the first vaccine recipients.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. David Hunter‏ @idmonfish Feb 10
          Replying to @GidMK

          Could it be that the peak was driven by super spreader events such as thanksgiving, Christmas & New Years and people increasing their movements and contacts because of that - so what we are seeing now is basically a return to “covid-normal” without these events?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Andrew Burton‏ @burtonad Feb 10
          Replying to @idmonfish @GidMK

          I think there’s strong evidence in the data (US reported cases and deaths) that suggests that those winter holidays with family contacts led to short lived spikes, but the overall trend is consistent with something like an “underlying R(t)” of 1.1 and 70% susceptibility ~ 0.8 R.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Sharon Moon‏ @SharonLeeMoon Feb 10
          Replying to @GidMK

          Knowledge of COVID deaths is correlated with uptake of public health practices. Which makes sense. 😬

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Adam Jacobs  💙‏ @statsguyuk Feb 10
          Replying to @GidMK

          Interesting thread, thanks. What seems to me a plausible possibility is if you imagine that society is split into 2 groups: those who are being careful and staying at home, and those who are going out and partying.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Adam Jacobs  💙‏ @statsguyuk Feb 10
          Replying to @statsguyuk @GidMK

          Let's say we have 30% immunity, but all that immunity is in the latter group (likely, as they've been the ones who have been less careful). If half the population is in each group, then that would give 60% immunity in the partying group, maybe enough for meaningful herd immunity

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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