10/n We tend to think of herd immunity as a fixed concept. Reach a threshold - 30%, 40%, 50% etc - and the disease stops spreading and eventually goes away This is actually only one aspect of herd immunity as an idea
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What do you think about the longer run changes in mobility? In the US it appears visits to grocery and pharmacy stores, retail and recreation, and transit stations may have all declined in January to levels not seen since spring. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-mobility-trends … https://www.tracktherecovery.org pic.twitter.com/BQKNYL5ZUp
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Open Table: Seated diners from online, phone, and walk-in reservations https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry …pic.twitter.com/LQSlFMMmUk
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There might be another clue in the fact that cases started dropping first in the north, then through the states heading south.
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Could one explanation be that although no heard immunity in a population as a whole has yet been attained but there might be in some sub groups in the population that have been fueling the spread?
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This is a good point. Nursing home residents in particular, as I understand it, were among the first vaccine recipients.
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Could it be that the peak was driven by super spreader events such as thanksgiving, Christmas & New Years and people increasing their movements and contacts because of that - so what we are seeing now is basically a return to “covid-normal” without these events?
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I think there’s strong evidence in the data (US reported cases and deaths) that suggests that those winter holidays with family contacts led to short lived spikes, but the overall trend is consistent with something like an “underlying R(t)” of 1.1 and 70% susceptibility ~ 0.8 R.
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Knowledge of COVID deaths is correlated with uptake of public health practices. Which makes sense.
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Interesting thread, thanks. What seems to me a plausible possibility is if you imagine that society is split into 2 groups: those who are being careful and staying at home, and those who are going out and partying.
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Let's say we have 30% immunity, but all that immunity is in the latter group (likely, as they've been the ones who have been less careful). If half the population is in each group, then that would give 60% immunity in the partying group, maybe enough for meaningful herd immunity
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