9/n I think one very plausible explanation is simply a combination of behavioural changes and some herd effects. This sounds complex, but it's actually pretty simple
-
-
20/n TL:DR I think a reasonable explanation for declining COVID-19 cases in a number of places is a combination of long-lasting behavioural changes alongside enormous numbers of infections. Hopefully vaccines can bridge the remaining gap in the near future
Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Or if reinfection become a thing with new variants, even if those infected for a second time don't suffer as badly, they still drive R up.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
What's your view on the sustained decline in India's epidemic (since sep-oct last year) Mobility is near baseline. Overall prevalence seems to be in the 20-30% range, though some big cities(delhi/mumbai) have 50-60% prevalence Behaviour has mostly gone back to pre-covid times
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.