7/n We know from places like Manaus that not only can a large proportion of people in the population get infected, but that you can see a massive epidemic even after at least 30% of an area has recovered and become immune to COVID-19https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext …
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18/n The big caveat to this seemingly good news is that the declining numbers require people in the US to maintain various cautious behaviours until the vaccinated population is much bigger
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19/n If this speculation is correct, and everyone entirely dropped their guard against COVID-19, even in places that were very hard-hit you'd expect to see another resurgence of the disease As we did in Manaus
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20/n TL:DR I think a reasonable explanation for declining COVID-19 cases in a number of places is a combination of long-lasting behavioural changes alongside enormous numbers of infections. Hopefully vaccines can bridge the remaining gap in the near future
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It is probably what is happening in North Dakota as an example. High natural infection rate, rescinded mask mandates, no indoor dining limits and a quite effective (by US standards) vaccine rollout...
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