6/n Some have proposed lower herd immunity thresholds, that only require 30-40% of the population to be infected. Now, it is ~possible~ that these have been reached and this is causing the decline However I'm not sure it's likely
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17/n And given that somewhere around 30% of the entire country is immune to the disease - vaccinated+recovered - we are starting to see herd effects come into play This is speculative, but I think a reasonable argument to makepic.twitter.com/ruII2nJX21
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18/n The big caveat to this seemingly good news is that the declining numbers require people in the US to maintain various cautious behaviours until the vaccinated population is much bigger
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19/n If this speculation is correct, and everyone entirely dropped their guard against COVID-19, even in places that were very hard-hit you'd expect to see another resurgence of the disease As we did in Manaus
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20/n TL:DR I think a reasonable explanation for declining COVID-19 cases in a number of places is a combination of long-lasting behavioural changes alongside enormous numbers of infections. Hopefully vaccines can bridge the remaining gap in the near future
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