5/n It's also probably not vaccines. While vaccine efforts are ongoing in all of these places, few countries have managed to vaccinate more than a small % of their citizens (with some very big outliers)pic.twitter.com/Eq0omJgoe4
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16/n What this means is that it's not unlikely that rather than the traditional R0 of COVID-19 of ~2.5-3, the US is really looking at a number a bit lower than that even before you take immune people into account
17/n And given that somewhere around 30% of the entire country is immune to the disease - vaccinated+recovered - we are starting to see herd effects come into play This is speculative, but I think a reasonable argument to makepic.twitter.com/ruII2nJX21
18/n The big caveat to this seemingly good news is that the declining numbers require people in the US to maintain various cautious behaviours until the vaccinated population is much bigger
19/n If this speculation is correct, and everyone entirely dropped their guard against COVID-19, even in places that were very hard-hit you'd expect to see another resurgence of the disease As we did in Manaus
20/n TL:DR I think a reasonable explanation for declining COVID-19 cases in a number of places is a combination of long-lasting behavioural changes alongside enormous numbers of infections. Hopefully vaccines can bridge the remaining gap in the near future
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