OK, cut the estimates down by 80% and we are talking 100 human lives per day.
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Replying to @TradeandMoney @GidMK
Or, maybe you feel I was off, not by 80%, but by 99%. We are still talking about hundreds of lives lost, are we not?
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Replying to @TradeandMoney @GidMK
One way my projections were off is that I didn't account for the impact of vaccinating millions of people on the probability their families, friends, and coworkers are infected. You are certain I'm off by much more than 99%?
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Replying to @TradeandMoney @GidMK
It's been reported the US has a growing stockpile of "tens of millions" of AZ & JNJ vaccines ready to go in Baltimore. Why is 24 million people vaccinated over the Nov. 23rd-March 15th period counterfactually from those vaccines that optimistic necessarily?
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Replying to @TradeandMoney @GidMK
81% of Covid deaths in the US are in the 65+ category. That's roughly 52/53 million people. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm … https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the-us-by-sex-and-age/ …
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Replying to @TradeandMoney @GidMK
As of 7 days ago, "tens of millions" of vaccine doses were being stockpiled in Baltimore.https://www.baltimoresun.com/coronavirus/bs-pr-hs-making-more-vaccine-20210129-5dmn7hxib5dm3hyuiohxb7iibe-story.html …
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Replying to @TradeandMoney @GidMK
81%*(20/53) = 30%. That's how much an extra 20 million vaccinations would cut the daily death rate of Covid, assuming the vaccines do nothing to limit transmission. These are sobering numbers, and one you might want to have a look at before tweeting.
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Replying to @TradeandMoney
Flaw one: the counterfactual to a meeting in 3 weeks is the instant capacity for millions of vaccines
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Replying to @GidMK @TradeandMoney
Flaw 2: there are no downsides to rushing an approval
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Replying to @GidMK @TradeandMoney
Flaw 3: a vaccine system that has so far been beset with massive issues will comfortably accommodate another approved vaccine instantaneously, with no planning required
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