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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Doug Campbell‏ @TradeandMoney Feb 5
      Replying to @GidMK

      OK, cut the estimates down by 80% and we are talking 100 human lives per day.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. Doug Campbell‏ @TradeandMoney Feb 5
      Replying to @TradeandMoney @GidMK

      Or, maybe you feel I was off, not by 80%, but by 99%. We are still talking about hundreds of lives lost, are we not?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Doug Campbell‏ @TradeandMoney Feb 5
      Replying to @TradeandMoney @GidMK

      One way my projections were off is that I didn't account for the impact of vaccinating millions of people on the probability their families, friends, and coworkers are infected. You are certain I'm off by much more than 99%?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Doug Campbell‏ @TradeandMoney Feb 5
      Replying to @TradeandMoney @GidMK

      It's been reported the US has a growing stockpile of "tens of millions" of AZ & JNJ vaccines ready to go in Baltimore. Why is 24 million people vaccinated over the Nov. 23rd-March 15th period counterfactually from those vaccines that optimistic necessarily?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Doug Campbell‏ @TradeandMoney Feb 5
      Replying to @TradeandMoney @GidMK

      81% of Covid deaths in the US are in the 65+ category. That's roughly 52/53 million people. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm … https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the-us-by-sex-and-age/ …

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Doug Campbell‏ @TradeandMoney Feb 5
      Replying to @TradeandMoney @GidMK

      As of 7 days ago, "tens of millions" of vaccine doses were being stockpiled in Baltimore.https://www.baltimoresun.com/coronavirus/bs-pr-hs-making-more-vaccine-20210129-5dmn7hxib5dm3hyuiohxb7iibe-story.html …

      1 reply 3 retweets 3 likes
    7. Doug Campbell‏ @TradeandMoney Feb 5
      Replying to @TradeandMoney @GidMK

      81%*(20/53) = 30%. That's how much an extra 20 million vaccinations would cut the daily death rate of Covid, assuming the vaccines do nothing to limit transmission. These are sobering numbers, and one you might want to have a look at before tweeting.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 5
      Replying to @TradeandMoney

      Flaw one: the counterfactual to a meeting in 3 weeks is the instant capacity for millions of vaccines

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 5
      Replying to @GidMK @TradeandMoney

      Flaw 2: there are no downsides to rushing an approval

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 5
      Replying to @GidMK @TradeandMoney

      Flaw 3: a vaccine system that has so far been beset with massive issues will comfortably accommodate another approved vaccine instantaneously, with no planning required

      4 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 5
      Replying to @GidMK @TradeandMoney

      Etc, etc, etc

      3:47 AM - 5 Feb 2021
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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