The most at risk population is about 53 million and accounts for something like 80% of deaths. No deaths in the trial in treatment group, so the AZ vacc alone would cut deaths by 16%/day. Right now around 3,000 Americans are dying a day, so that means 500 humans a day.
Flaw one: the counterfactual to a meeting in 3 weeks is the instant capacity for millions of vaccines
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Flaw 2: there are no downsides to rushing an approval
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Flaw 3: a vaccine system that has so far been beset with massive issues will comfortably accommodate another approved vaccine instantaneously, with no planning required
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Counterpoint: JNJ and Oxford literally have “tens of millions” of doses ready to ship. Oxford’s vaccine could have been approved months ago.
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