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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 5

      Health Nerd Retweeted Atomsk's Sanakan

      An excellent thread demonstrating why @michaelmina_lab's speculations, while interesting, are almost certainly incorrecthttps://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1357561386176503809 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Atomsk's Sanakan @AtomsksSanakan
      1/J Wanted to address some issues in the thread below from another immunologist. Should be a nice change-of-pace from dealing with obvious nonsense from disingenuous denialists. https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1357344439673397249 … https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/891040491214688257 … pic.twitter.com/QWE2Q0g6bk
      Show this thread
      1 reply 3 retweets 27 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK Feb 5

      In particular, the idea that there have been 10x the confirmed number of cases in the U.S. is, at this point, extremely implausible In March? Definitely. But not now

      12:21 AM - 5 Feb 2021
      • 2 Retweets
      • 35 Likes
      • Dang and Blast! Filialleiter Mathematiker plädiert für Ruhe und Rationalität Claire Luck Tom Andrews💙 Ronit Dalmat James Pitt 𝙼𝚊𝚝𝚝 𝙻𝚞𝚝𝚑𝚎𝚛 T. Allen Pannell, Jr
      5 replies 2 retweets 35 likes
        1. Bryan P. White, MS, MPH‏ @bpwhite_bio Feb 5
          Replying to @GidMK

          I thought that we are settling in around 2x cases, meaning 25 mil confirmed, 25 mil missed, in the US, 50 mil total. Assuming just the 18+ population, still only about 23% of the population with some type of immunity from infection. Add another 10 mil from vaccines = 29%.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Kawasaki_KR-1‏ @KawasakiKR11 Feb 5
          Replying to @GidMK

          I was just doing a rough calc. using the new serosurvey from Japan & ~2x makes sense there.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Pedro‏ @iu77bu81 Feb 5
          Replying to @GidMK

          So what is the estimate- 4 fold the confirmed cases?pic.twitter.com/FEKYuYo4p4

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Dang and Blast!‏ @Dangandblast Feb 6
          Replying to @iu77bu81 @GidMK

          I like how missed cases have to be mostly in places that haven't had that many cases for their nationwide 10x theory to hold water. Either that or several states are well past 100% infection and barreling along in their second round of universal infection.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Joel Man‏ @JoelMan2 Feb 5
          Replying to @GidMK

          Have supported Mina's whole idea but have been dismayed at some of the " talking points" he's used to push the ubiquitous rapid antigen test approach.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Balgor‏ @Balgor11 Feb 5
          Replying to @GidMK

          1:10 is way too low, It's more like 1:3 now. Have you checked out @youyanggu, I like his infection model and it's been my go to. He has the US at 27% of the population with a prior infection.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. LIndenArden‏ @inden_l Feb 5
          Replying to @Balgor11 @GidMK @youyanggu

          Has a history of overestimating infections and having to adjust them downward subsequently. Nice guy though!

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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