An excellent thread demonstrating why @michaelmina_lab's speculations, while interesting, are almost certainly incorrecthttps://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1357561386176503809 …
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I thought that we are settling in around 2x cases, meaning 25 mil confirmed, 25 mil missed, in the US, 50 mil total. Assuming just the 18+ population, still only about 23% of the population with some type of immunity from infection. Add another 10 mil from vaccines = 29%.
I was just doing a rough calc. using the new serosurvey from Japan & ~2x makes sense there.
I like how missed cases have to be mostly in places that haven't had that many cases for their nationwide 10x theory to hold water. Either that or several states are well past 100% infection and barreling along in their second round of universal infection.
Have supported Mina's whole idea but have been dismayed at some of the " talking points" he's used to push the ubiquitous rapid antigen test approach.
1:10 is way too low, It's more like 1:3 now. Have you checked out @youyanggu, I like his infection model and it's been my go to. He has the US at 27% of the population with a prior infection.
Has a history of overestimating infections and having to adjust them downward subsequently. Nice guy though!
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