Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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Bad COVID-19 Takes Retweeted Eran Segal
Context: The answer is that vaccinating the 20% of the population that's least mobile would not necessarily have as dramatic effect on cases. And in fact, it seems to be working well for the >60 year-old population that's now mostly vaccinated.https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1356313705684869121 …
Bad COVID-19 Takes added,
Alex responded to this by disregarding it; complaining that the overall rates don't drop as fast. But the fact that those getting vaccinated are less sick is evidence they have effect. In the last 3 weeks >60 have fewer cases, while cases among the unvaccinated rise. Suggestive.pic.twitter.com/PvuG3Bjhmv
For someone who has grifted hundreds of thousands of pamphlets denying lockdowns work, it's a weird flex to complain the lockdown hasn't been more effective. Answer is this strain is more infectious, and Israel has not been as infected as England has. More potential victims.pic.twitter.com/i7uBQuh69E
Have you commented on this study? It goes against most other studies, raising big red flags, but I haven’t seen it addressed by anyone knowledgeable:https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13484 …
Bad COVID-19 Takes Retweeted Health Nerd
I've not run one yet, but if I do I would cite this thread. Key problems are not taking into account actual enforcement or dates of enforcement. Being badly hit by virus causes more controls, but the controls didn't cause the earlier deaths.https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1349164532627693570 …
Bad COVID-19 Takes added,
A colleague and I have published this critique on Pubpeer which you can see here: https://pubpeer.com/publications/3D81CAC483C2021C00E27C8826DF71#5 …
What I gather is that this paper doesn’t move the needle on your current opinion, that is “the marginal benefit of stay-at-home orders (etc) is likely to be quite small in most cases.” Am I overstating? Are you suggesting that stay-at-home orders are too restrictive in the US?
Apologies in advance if I am misstating your opinion. This is most definitely *not* my field.
Whether or not a measure is too restrictive is more of a judgement call than a factual statement, but I do think it likely that every additional restriction will have a smaller marginal benefit than the ones before
However, it is entirely possible that a small marginal benefit could be the difference between an out-of-control epidemic and control of COVID-19, so like I said, hard to answer
A City of Miami Beach commissioner was using the study to justify ending business closures. I think he’s completely incapable of understanding the paper & I’d want to see some consensus before ending restrictions, generally.pic.twitter.com/z7YQJpQ2qa
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