If you haven't been following this, dive in. It is depressing. A fatally flawed paper gets published & used to justify policy. @GidMK & @ikashnitsky spend ~50 hours pointing out the flaws. Lead author trashes them in the media (calls them 'trolls'). Paper is *still* not retractedhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1356412524162256899 …
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Ilya Kashnitsky Retweeted Ilya Kashnitsky
And the amazing part is that the "correction" makes the paper ever more absurd. In its current form it 100% wouldn’t pass the sniff test of *any* demographer or frankly any researcher who pause for a heart bit to think.
@JAMA_current is deeply corruptedhttps://twitter.com/ikashnitsky/status/1356044308986671105 …Ilya Kashnitsky added,
Ilya Kashnitsky @ikashnitskyHow can one be satisfied with the "corrected" "finding" that literally claims that missing a couple of months of schooling is the most detrimental thing that can happen to a kid in the remaining life... but (!) only if it's a US kid; if the kid is from Europe, all fine https://twitter.com/anya1anya/status/1355865046392430595 … pic.twitter.com/NmUKpD7RkKShow this thread1 reply 2 retweets 8 likes -
It would be genuinely fascinating to know what the authors think the mechanism is for their finding that missing school in Europe doesn't lead to years of life lost, but missing school in the US does. Huh?
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They try to pull out the story of large inequality in the US, which is true but cannot explain their error driven monstrous gap between US and EU They claim that 1 year of lost education translates into 45% increase in age-specific death rates (applied though-out remaining life)
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Replying to @ikashnitsky @GYamey and
Now, a sanity check. Given 2017 US life table, male life expectancy is 76.1 years a 45% increase in death rates translates in a life exp of 71.4 That's just one year. The *observed* differences in *average* length of education for large groups can be 3–7 years
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Replying to @ikashnitsky @GYamey and
Let's take 5 years gap 1.45^5 = 6.41 Which brings the life expectancy down to 50.1 years – below the Sub-Saharan African level
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Replying to @ikashnitsky @GYamey and
The factual gaps in longevity by education are pretty large, but not nearly this size Here is a figure I quickly pull from Permanyer etal 2018 (http://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-018-0718-z …)pic.twitter.com/rNDNWpI4EL
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Replying to @ikashnitsky @GYamey and
Here I built a quick plot showing how life expectancy at birth drops if one assumes a 45% increase in age-specific deaths per year of lost education Utter nonsensepic.twitter.com/CFujlSAEJV
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Replying to @ikashnitsky @GidMK and
Woah, if you drop out of school in middle school you die shortly thereafter!!! Oh wait that doesn’t actually happen!
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If you are never formally educated you cease to exist entirely, which seems somewhat unlikely
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